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THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document 6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING objective analysis and effective PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND around the world.HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation occasional paper series. RAND occasional papers may include an informed perspective on a timely policy issue, a discussion of new research methodologies, essays, a paper presented at a conference, a conference summary, or a summa- ry of work in progress. All RAND occasional papers undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity. THINKING ABOUT AMERICA’S DEFENSE An Analytical Memoir Glenn A. Kent With David Ochmanek Michael Spirtas Bruce R. Pirnie Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE This publication was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kent, Glenn A., 1915– Thinking about America’s defense : an analytical memoir / Glenn A. Kent ; with David Ochmanek, Michael Spirtas, Bruce R. Pirnie. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4452-5 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Military planning—United States. 2. United States. Air Force—Officers— Biography. 3. Generals—United States—Biography. 4. Strategic forces—United States. 5. National security—United States. 6. United States—Defenses—Decision making. 7. United States—Military policy. I. Ochmanek, David A. II. Spirtas, Michael. III. Pirnie, Bruce, 1940– IV. Title. U153.K466 2008 355'.033073—dc22 2008025840 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R is a registered trademark.® Cover design by Carol Earnest © Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org Preface For those who have known and worked with Lieutenant General (retired) Glenn Altran Kent over the years, it came as something of a shock a few years ago when, in his late eighties, he (sort of) retired. That is, he stopped coming into work every day. He has remained engaged in U.S. national security affairs as an astute observer of policy, and he continues to make important contributions to the work of his col- leagues at the RAND Corporation and elsewhere. His colleagues still turn to him for his insights on current work. But he is, alas, no longer a daily presence. The void that this transition in General Kent’s role cre- ated in the professional lives of his colleagues prompted us to approach him about recording some of the high points of his career as a defense analyst so that these invaluable lessons would not be lost. The result is this volume. This is not a memoir or a biography in the traditional sense of these words. General Kent was not really interested in recounting the events of his life, fascinating though they are. He was, however, will- ing and indeed eager to share what he has learned about analysis and defense policymaking. Hence, he has produced what we call an ana- lytical memoir, in which he shares his account of the most significant issues with which he was involved over the course of his career—how he saw each issue and its significance, how he conceptualized and addressed the central analytical problems associated with the issue, and how his work affected policy. Because General Kent’s career in defense began just before World War II and extended into the 21st century and because he was intimately involved in many of the most salient national iii iv Thinking About America’s Defense: An Analytical Memoir security debates over the course of that span, to read this volume is, in many ways, to read an insider’s history of key aspects of the Cold War and post–Cold War defense strategies of the United States. Everyone who has worked with General Kent is indebted to him for the contributions he made to solving difficult, complex problems. Whether the task at hand was predicting the weather over Greenland in support of crews ferrying combat aircraft to England, setting the performance specifications for the Air Force’s next frontline fighter air- craft, or outflanking the leadership of the Navy in support of the cre- ation of the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) for U.S. stra- tegic nuclear forces, General Kent always gave it his best. And his best was always very, very good. The stories collected in this volume are another tangible legacy of this uniquely creative, insightful, and influ- ential man, and for this, we are again in his debt. Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpora- tion, is the Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the deployment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Manage- ment; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Boxesxiii Acknowledgments ...............................................................xv Abbreviations ....................................................................xxi FOREWORD Creating Strategic Analysis ..................................................... 1 Thomas C. Schelling FOREWORD Putting Analysis to Work ....................................................... 3 Harold Brown Introduction ....................................................................... 7 David Ochmanek, Bruce Pirnie, and Michael Spirtas CHAPTER ONE The Single Integrated Operational Plan .....................................21 The Advent of the SIOP ......................................................... 22 Defending the Planners of the SIOP ........................................... 30 Calculating the “SIOP Degrade” ................................................37 CHAPTER TWO Nuclear Weapons: Strategy and Arms Control............................ 43 Limiting Damage to the United States ........................................ 43 Limiting Damage: Allocation of Resources ................................... 50 v vi Thinking About America’s Defense: An Analytical Memoir Helping with DPMs ............................................................. 54 Changing the Paradigm of Arms Control..................................... 56 From SALT to START ...........................................................62 “Stability” Between U.S. and Soviet Strategic Forces .........................72 The Concept of First-Strike Stability .........................................73 Insights on Strategic Offensive Forces ....................................... 80 The Debate over Strategic Defenses ...........................................82 The Transition from Assured Destruction to Assured Survival ..........83 Calculating First-Strike Stability in the Presence of Strategic Defenses .................................................................... 87 Final Thoughts ..................................................................89 CHAPTER THREE Analysis, Force Planning, and the Paradigm for Modernizing .........93 On Analysis ........................................................................93 Running Air Force Studies and Analysis ..................................... 101 My General Approach and the “Learn to Think” Mandate ............. 101 On Recruiting ................................................................. 104 The Paradigm for Promoting Innovation and Modernizing the Operational Capabilities of the Force .................................... 105 A Framework for Modernizing .............................................. 106 Strategies to Tasks: A Construct for Advocating New Concepts .......... 115 Strategies to Tasks Debuts ................................................... 116 The Advocacy of Systems .................................................... 119 Strategies to Tasks Employed to This Day ................................. 120 CHAPTER FOUR Modernizing Nuclear Forces ................................................ 123 Killing the Concept for an Area-Denial Weapon ........................... 123 The B-36 Delivering Megaton Bombs ........................................ 126 Developing the MB-1 Rocket ................................................. 128 Other Observations ........................................................... 136 The Short-Range Attack Missile Affair ....................................... 137 The Minuteman Missile ........................................................ 139 Responding to a Possible Soviet Nationwide Antiballistic Missile Deployment 141 Contents vii The Minuteman III ........................................................... 144 Defining the Deployment of the Minuteman III ......................... 146 Penetrating Soviet Air Defenses: The Argument for Decoys ............... 149 Keeping Bombers in the Triad: The Mix Is the Thing ...................... 153 Gaining Insight as to the Vulnerability of Submarines on Patrol ......... 158 Defining and Promoting the Defense Support Program ................... 160 CHAPTER FIVE Modernizing Conventional Forces ......................................... 165 The C-5A Fiasco ................................................................. 165 Defining the F-X and Saving the F-15 ........................................ 168 The Rationale for the Lightweight Fighter ................................... 172 Demonstrating the AWACS ................................................... 179 Starting the JSTARS Program ................................................. 184 Keeping the Global Positioning System Alive ............................... 188 JDAM and the CAG for Bomber Weapons .................................. 191 CHAPTER SIX Analytical Tools ................................................................ 199 Assessing the Effectiveness of Bomber Attacks .............................. 199 Assessing the Effectiveness of ABM Deployments .......................... 202 Providing Insights with the SABER GRAND Model ...................... 212 Another Episode with SABER GRAND ..................................... 217 Fostering Campaign Models ................................................... 223 The Trade-Offs Between Numbers, Yield, and CEP in Hard-Target Kill ......................................................... 226 The Trade-Off with “Soft” Area Targets ................................... 229 Calculus of the Attrition of Agents in a Battle .............................. 230 Basic Principles ................................................................ 232 Scaling Up ..................................................................... 234 Heterogeneous Engagements ................................................ 235 Future Applications ........................................................... 239 viii Thinking About America’s Defense: An Analytical Memoir CHAPTER SEVEN Summing Up: Kent’s Maxims ............................................... 243 Creating Effective Analyses .................................................... 243 Think Before You Calculate ................................................. 243 Minimize Reliance on Computers .......................................... 243 Seek Help from Outside Experts ............................................244 Do Not Treat the Adversary as Static ......................................244 Eschew “Recommendations” ................................................244 Recruit People Who Can Think244 Invest in People ................................................................244 Use No-Holds-Barred “Murder Boards” to Improve Your Products ................................................................... 245 Making (Good) Things Happen .............................................. 245 Convene Conceivers Action Groups to Promote Innovation in Operational Capabilities ................................................ 245 Beware of the “Hobby Shop” Mentality ................................... 245 Draw a Bright Line Between Demonstrating a Technology and Developing a System ..................................................... 245 Be an Advocate ................................................................ 246 Doing the Right Thing ......................................................... 246 To Thine Own Self Be True ................................................. 246 Beware of Statements of “Operational Requirements” .................. 247 Accept Risks ................................................................... 247 Winning Bureaucratic Battles 247 Understand the Dynamics of the Real Decisionmaking Process ....... 247 Go to the Top ................................................................. 247 Seize the Conceptual High Ground ........................................ 247 Anticipate the Need for Analysis ............................................ 248 Recognize that a Good Offense Is Usually Better Than a Good Defense ............................................................ 248 Encourage Errors by Your Adversary ....................................... 248 And Finally: Do Your Homework 248 Chronology ..................................................................... 249 Awards ........................................................................... 253 Bibliography .................................................................... 255