Colorado Springs - Impact of Terrorism on Future Mortality Assumptions

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Colorado Springs - Impact of Terrorism on Future Mortality Assumptions

Published : Tuesday, July 05, 2011
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1
SOA Scenario Presentation
Scenarios
P Bishop, 4/22/02
The following are scenarios on plausible outcomes to the attacks of September 11 and the ensuing war on
terrorism.
The left-hand column briefly describes each scenario and the right hand column extracts the dimensions
of uncertainty inherent in that scenario.
International Study on Counterterrorism, the Millennium Project, a global
foresight project sponsored by the American Council of the United Nations
University (
http://www.geocities.com/~acunu//millennium/antiterrorism.html
)
Drivers, uncertainties
ESCALATION:
A long war involving attack and counter attack through
biological and nuclear saber rattling. The poppy fields of Afghanistan are
attacked with Agent Orange to dry up a principal source of terrorist income. But it
is a long war. (Gordon)
War
-
- escalation vs
stalemate vs decline
Length
-
- short vs long
COUNTER MINDSET:
Political Islamisists saw secular Western capitalism as
reducing everything to a commodity, reinforcing individualism and greed, and
arrogantly running financial and political rules of the world to American's benefit.
They believed that Islam’s mission was now to set the world right. The strategies
followed by the international community addressed this mindset. Television,
radio, software, magazine, music materials were designed to reinforce the idea
that this was a war against terrorism and promoted the restoration of the right and
proper image of Islam. A "Global Partnership for Development" gave reason for
people not to be sympathetic with terrorists. In short, this was an “intellectual
arms race” (Glenn)
Islamic relation with
West
-
- better vs
same vs worse
Islamic influence on
West
-
- some vs none
ROOT CAUSES:
The US led military war against terrorism failed to end
terrorism. The US proposed a different global strategy involving the provision of
minimal standards of health, education, services and housing, worldwide. After a
short period of expansion and association with other social radical movements,
terrorism started to lose ground. A strong emphasis was placed on education by
nations of the world to reduce inequality in access to work opportunities and to
attain an acceptable standard of living on a global basis. (Gutierrez)
US military objectives
-
-
succeed vs fail
US response
-
- force vs
development
Terrorism
-
- more vs
same vs less
SOCRATIC JUSTICE:
The US used all of the powers that the UN could offer.
The US ratified the International Criminal Court and encouraged other nations to
do so. The US brought captured terrorists and criminals to the Court and then
focused on new modes of international cooperation. (Gordon)
Response
-
- unilateral
(U.S.) vs multilateral
(U.N.)
THE WILD WEST:
US and Allied military strikes led to endless escalation in a
war that apparently was won, but over time sped up the process of decline, with
terror meeting terror. The CIA got back into business on a big scale. Nations
already poor became poorer. (Inayatullah)
War
-
- won vs stalemate
vs lost
Result for poor countries
-
- better vs same vs
worse
2
THE PEACEFUL COWBOY:
The US sought means to cooperate with other
nations to deal with terrorism in a more contained, targeted way, although a great
deal of wild west posturing continued. There were three parts to its strategy:
improved internal security; enhanced intelligence; and economic action..
Eventually, protection against terrorism has become almost a habit. (Barton)
US response
-
- force vs
development
Terrorism
-
- defeated vs
persistent
THE NEXT YEAR:
An invasion of the Taliban areas results in the execution of
the Taliban- held UN aid workers. This provides additional moral support for
more military strikes. The US considered withdrawing support for Israel unless
they reduced their military severity. Casualties mounted. Bin Laden was
apparently assassinated by one of his men but more likely by Alliance special
forces. (Rogers)
Mideast victor
-
- Israel
vs Palestine vs both
vs neither
Bin Laden
-
- killed vs
not
FORTRESS USA/OECD:
Borders were closed, locked down. This led to
general impoverishment and the loss of innovation that accompanies immigration.
in the short run. It provided the appearance of security, but in the longer run,
poverty resulted. (Inayatullah)
US isolation
-
- more vs
less
Globalization
-
- more vs
same vs less
Security
-
- more vs
same vs less
ESTABLISHING A GLOBAL CIVIC ETHIC:
Key international NGO’s
formed a global council that believed that the major impediment to lasting peace
and global security was the lack of a global civic ethic. A World Public Service
was formed in which volunteers took on global ethical management tasks in
international conflict resolution. Their strategy: potential combatants have to
agree to mediation and to implement the outcomes thereof. Failing this, sustained
ongoing sanctions would follow. Comprehensive military action overseen by a
global peace force would be a last resort. (Wildman)
Response
-
- government
vs NGO
Strategy
-
- force vs
economic vs cultural
COLONIALISM REBORN:
After the US destroys the Taliban regime, internal
conflicts in Afghanistan cause local rioting and escalating conflicts. bin Laden’s
death (or capture) creates enthusiasm in the US and unrest in the Muslim
countries. Massive deliveries of assistance for Afghanistan are provided to the
country in the form of food, quick rebuilding of hospitals, others services, and
infrastructure. In the Middle East, the US is forced either to put pressure on both
parties to find a compromise, or to accept complete failure of the peace process
and thus the West becomes further involved in the unstable region from Pakistan
to the Middle East. An unexpected terrorist event dramatically changes the
situation which then becomes similar to the colonial wars of the 19th and 20th
centuries. A long period of reshuffling of the political and security system follow.
Bin Laden
-
- killed vs
captured vs free
US response
-
- force vs
aid
Middle East
-
- solved vs
not
CALL ON THE UN:
The investigation that "followed the money" to map the
criminal network and catch the criminals proved to be extremely complex and the
speed of international financial markets made this task more difficult than
anticipated. It became clear that the US experience in Afghanistan would become
similar to the USSR’s, but complicated by continued terrorism at home. This
situation lasted for more than one year and induced some serious political
changes both in different Islamic countries where extremists obtained greater
influence and in the US too, where the war (and Bush) became unpopular. The
"anti-global" movement gained influence, and new leaders with new policies
appeared. The UN was seen as potentially more useful in settling international
disputes than direct interventionism had proven to be. The Bin Laden case, still
unsolved, was taken over by the International Criminal Court.
Financial strategy
-
-
successful vs not
Conflict
-
- continuing vs
concluded
Domestic support
-
-
continuing vs not
Globalization
-
- more vs
same vs less
Response
-
- unilateral vs
multilateral
3
New York University
Interactive Telecommunications Program
Drivers, uncertainties
An Empire Stretched Too Thin: US caught in never-ending
quagmire
War
-
- concluded vs continuing
International McCarthyism: US wins, and becomes a social-
control-oriented corporate state
US involvement in world
-
- more vs
same vs less
Support for US involvement
-
- more vs
same vs less
US strategy
-
- support vs control
Black Market World: War leads to fragmentation, "gated
nations," a war between rich and poor nations, and increased
reliance on underground economies
Globalization
-
- more vs same vs less
Economy
-
- white market vs black
market
Gloom and Boom: Pakistan goes radical-Islamic, leading to
nuclear attacks and Chernobyls everywhere
Nuclear
-
- used vs not
Blooming World: The only optimistic future of the five, in which
the war's imperatives change the culture for the better
Results
-
- good vs same vs not
7 war scenarios every investor must consider,
CNBC
(
http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/company/7490.asp
)
Drivers, uncertainties
Osama bin Laden is captured
Bin Laden
-
- captured vs not
The war escalates
War
-
- short vs long
Afghanistan turns into a quagmire
War against Taliban
-
- win vs lose
There are more terrorist strikes
Terrorist
-
- more strikes vs not
Dissent arises in the United States
US domestic support
-
- strong vs weak
The war on terrorism destabilizes the Middle East
Effect on Middle East
-
- good vs bad vs
none
U.S. attacks spread to Iraq or elsewhere
US and Iraq
-
- attack vs not
4
Future Survey, a publication of the World Future Society (
http://www.wfs.org/fsurv.htm
), published
synopses of various scenarios in its October and November 2001 editions.
Sept
ember
11
: Chapter One of Which Scenario?
Jay Ogilvy (Vice President,
Global Business Network).
http://www.gbn.com
, 4 p.
Drivers, uncertainties
1) Jihad
: the July 2003 attack on the Eiffel Tower continues the string of
international incidents…the Americans did their best to smoke out Osama bin
Laden, but the enemy was elusive, invisible, dispersed…there was talk of "a
different kind of war" at first, but America wanted action and retribution after the
atrocity at the 2001 World Series, and lashed out with less discrimination…that was
just what Osama bin Laden wanted
-
-an escalation from crime to war; pictures of
maimed women and children helped to unite the Islamic world against
America…throughout 2002, massive air strikes by the US were followed by
terrorist attacks in unlikely places
-
-a shopping mall in Toledo, a high school
graduation in Austin, a rock concert in London, the assassination of a governor, the
kidnapping of a group of business executives…by the end of 2002 the terror had
created massive paranoia and the Dow dipped to triple digits.
Bin Laden
-
- captured
vs not
Terrorism
-
- more vs
less
2) One World
: ground is broken in July 2003 for the new World Trade Center in
NYC…the US has walked the fine line between appeasement and a show of force
that would have united the Islamic world; focusing on global "crime," it refrained
from indiscriminate attacks and relied instead on special forces, covert operations,
and very good police work…the crime against humanity led to humane responses
-
-
an outpouring of generosity and a soul-searching quest for what is most important
in life…after seven long months, the criminals were found and punished: "
the
patient precision of their defeat saved the world from decades of descent into
senseless bloodshed
.
"
US response
-
-
moderate vs
extreme
Int'l response
-
-
supportive vs not
3) Revolution
: the July 2003 attack on the London Stock Exchange drove home the
lesson that the terrorists are targeting the infrastructure of international capitalism
and that the enemy was corporatism everywhere…the attack on the Pentagon, in
hindsight, provoked a military response to unite the Islamic world rather than hurt
the US…further attacks made it obvious that the target was big business rather than
the US: a series of package bombs sent to many corporate headquarters, the frying
of the computers at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, etc…both sovereign states and
the UN were not set up to fight for companies rather than nations…"
global
corporations are now calling for some form of global governance that can mobilize
against terrorism
.
"
Terrorist target
-
-
government vs
corporations
5
Fighting a Spreading Fire
, Stan Crock and 8 others,
Business Week,
22 Oct 2001,
38-40.
Drivers, uncertainties
1) The Big Win:
the Taliban collapses and US and UK commandos root out the al
Qaeda network; moderate Muslim regimes grow stronger, and fundamentalist
groups wither; US pressure prompts new talks between Israel and Palestinians; the
US forges warmer ties with Russia and Iran; huge increases in US economic and
military aid follow;
War
-
- successful vs
not
Islamic
fundamentalism
-
-
stronger vs weaker
Israeli-Palestinian
conflict
-
- resolved
not
2) The Not-So-Quick Kill:
Northern Alliance insurgents secure Afghanistan; US
troops eventually snare bin Laden, but his martyrdom spurs new terrorist attacks;
domestic pressure rises to take the war on terrorism to countries such as Iraq,
Indonesia, and Malaysia;
Taliban
-
- overthrown
vs not
Bin Laden
-
- captured
vs not
Terrorism
-
- grows vs
not
3) A Long Goodbye:
US forces fail to capture bin Laden after months of cave-by-
cave searching; critics warn of a Vietnam-style quagmire; reports surface that bin
Laden has fled to a new country; strains grow on the antiterror coalition;
Bin Laden
-
- captured
vs not
Support for war
-
-
continuing vs
waning
4) Osama's Revenge:
bin Laden is taken, but extremists foment uprisings and some
alliance governments topple; threats of anti-Western insurrection grow as allies
enter a new cold war; the world economy suffers from instability in the oil-
producing Middle East; Israelis and Arabs go to war.
Bin Laden
-
- captured
vs not
Terrorism
-
- grows vs
not
World economy
-
-
grows vs not
6
Ends and Means: Defining a Just War
, Richard Falk (Prof Emeritus of
International Law, Princeton U),
The Nation,
29 Oct 2001,
11
-15.
Drivers, uncertainties
1) Antiwar/Pacifist Approach
: opposition to even limited military action overlooks
the nature of the threat and cannot meet the central challenge of restoring some
sense of security; this stance has little or no cultural resonance with the
overwhelming majority of Americans (a related form of antiwar advocacy based on
a critique of the US as an imperialist superpower "also seems dangerously
inappropriate in addressing the challenge");
US response
-
-
military vs not
2) Legalist/UN Approach
: a UN tribunal could be constituted, charging Osama bin
Laden and associates with crimes against humanity, but this course is unlikely to
deal effectively with the overall threat (public prosecution would give bin Laden a
platform to rally further support from a sympathetic constituency; conviction and
punishment would certainly be viewed as a kind of legal martyrdom); moreover, "it
strains the imagination to suppose that the Bush Administration would relinquish
control over bin Laden to an international tribunal"
US response
-
- int'l
law vs not
3) Militarist Approach
: "unlike pacifism and legalism, militarism poses a practical
danger of immense proportions. Excessive reliance on the military will backfire
badly, further imperiling the security of Americans and others, spreading war and
destruction far afield;" if military goals overshoot to include countries seen as
hostile to the US (Iraq, Libya, and possibly Syria, Iran, and Sudan), "the war
against global terrorism will be lost, and bad
l
y
.
"
US response
-
-
military vs not
What Now? Three Futuribles
, W. Warren Wagar (Distinguished Teaching Prof of
History, SUNY-Binghamton). www.wfs.org, 3 pages, 24
Sept
2001.
Drivers, uncertainties
1) General War in the Middle East
: in which the US and allies try to seize control
of Afghanistan and Iraq, replace their governments, and kill or capture Saddam
Hussein, Osama bin Laden, and their chief associates ("
the chances of American
and allied success in such a war are 50-50 at best
")
Mideast war --
happens vs not
2) Focus on Afghanistan First
: military force is needed to dislodge the Taliban
from power and attack Osama bin Laden; if successful, such operations may or may
not lead to a later attack on Iraq ("the temptation to widen the war would be great,
given Baghdad's refusal to accept UN inspection of its weapons facilities")
Mideast war
-
-
happens vs not
3) Strikes Against Terrorist Networks
: operations are confined to surgical strikes
against the bin Laden network and any other networks that threaten the safety of
Americans and their allies; much of this action would not take the form of military
attacks (this limited campaign would seek to cripple terrorist networks, not to
interfere in the internal political life of any Muslim nation).
Any war
-
- happens vs
not
7
10 KEY QUESTIONS
Michael Marien, Editor
Futures Survey, 7 Oct 2001
http://
www.wfs.org
THE WAR
1) Further Terrorist
Attacks?
Perhaps the major question at the moment, for the US and elsewhere. If further
attacks happen, will they be substantially worse than those of
Sept
11
?
2) How Long a War?
Many are cautioning that the war against terrorism will take a long time
-
- many
years if not decades. But can a long war against something as diffuse and complex
as terrorism ever be decisive? Or will it be like the war on drugs, or the war on
cancer?
3) What Outcome to
the War?
Americans assume that they and their allies will prevail. Osama bin Laden may
well be killed or captured, but after that victory will public enthusiasm for a
prolonged conflict wane?
4) Will the Allied
Coalition Hold?
The Americans have patiently and wisely assembled the broadest possible
antiterrorist coalition, including moderate Muslim governments. But will Radical
Muslims topple one or more of these governments? Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are
especially worrisome.
THE COSTS
5) Will the Economy
Thrive or Dive?
In a normal war, government spending would stimulate the economy. But the
global economy was already shaky when the terrorists attacked, and this "war" is
different. Plausible economic
scenarios
range from resumption of the "long boom"
to an "iffy" economy of mixed gains and losses, to prolonged recession, and even a
calamitous depression.
6) Will Civil Liberties
Be Significantly
Curtailed?
Clearly more intelligence and improvements in security are needed, but will many
come at the expense of civil liberties? And will they be permanent? Will we live in
a prison-like atmosphere, all in the name of Operation Enduring Freedom?
7) Will There Be
Significant
Privation and
Sacrifice?
At present, it appears that most Americans will not pay a steep price
-
-that we can
have both guns and butter. On the other hand, many millions in Afghanistan
already face displacement and/or starvation. And many millions more will suffer if
the war spreads to other countries, notably Pakistan (population 145 million).
8) Will the Global
Environment
Suffer?
One of the major costs of the war appears to be a suspension of efforts to cope with
global warming and to build sustainable societies. If the war deepens and drags on
for decades, pollution and human-induced climate change may prove more
devastating overall
-
-if far less dramatic
-
-than the attack on the World Trade Center
8
THE OUTCOMES
9) How Far Will
Crackdowns on
Money Laundering
Go?
Initial steps have already been taken to freeze the assets of terrorist organizations.
Any serious and sustained crackdown on money laundering, flight capital, and
unregulated offshore bank accounts could bring in hundreds of billions of dollars
-
-
perhaps enough to finance the war on terrorism and reconstruction in the aftermath?
10) How Far Will
Other Global
Reforms Be
Pursued?
Any serious war must attack the root causes of terrorism, and could accelerate
actions on numerous social, economic, and political reforms that have been
advocated. Could the overall long-term benefits from a quickening toward "a world
that works for all" possibly outweigh the many costs of the terrorist attack and the
counter-attack? In a time of fear and despair, this may be our greatest uplifting
hope.
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