The Oil Depletion Protocol
209 Pages
English

The Oil Depletion Protocol

-

209 Pages
English

Description

Since oil is the primary fuel of global industrial civilization, its imminent depletion is a problem that will have profound impact on every aspect of modern life. Without international agreement on how to manage the decline of this vital resource, the world faces unprecedented risk of conflict and collapse.

The Oil Depletion Protocol describes a unique accord whereby nations would voluntarily reduce their oil production and oil imports according to a consistent, sensible formula. This would enable the task of energy transition to be planned and supported over the long term, providing a context of stable energy prices and peaceful cooperation. The Protocol will be presented at international gatherings, initiating the process of country-by-country negotiation and adoption, and mobilizing public support. To this end, this book:

  • provides an overview of the data concerning Peak Oil and its timing
  • briefly explains the protocol and its implications for the reader and for decision makers in government and industry around the world
  • deals with frequently asked questions and objections, and
  • looks forward to how the protocol can be adopted and how municipalities and ordinary citizens can facilitate the process.

Timely and critically important, The Oil Depletion Protocol is a must-read for policy makers and for all who seek to avert a Peak Oil collapse.

Listen to an interview with Richard Heinberg from WRPI.


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Published by
Published 01 September 2006
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EAN13 9781550924022
Language English
Document size 1 MB

Legal information: rental price per page €. This information is given for information only in accordance with current legislation.

Exrait

A d va n c e Pra i s e f o r
The Oil Depletion Protocol
At last—a reality check. Are we ready for the coming decline in oil production? No. Can we prepare for it? Yes. That is whatThe Oil Depletion Protocolis all about. This is another cutting-edge work from Richard Heinberg. My congratulations. —LESTERR. BROWN, President, Earth Policy Institute
Richard Heinberg’s earlier bookThe Party’s Overset the scene, explaining how the growth of oil supply, which changed the world over the past Century, is giving way to decline from natural depletion. Now, he turns to a sound but simple solution, namely for the countries of the world to agree to cut imports to match what Nature has to offer. It is a well-written readily comprehensible account of a very sensible proposal that ought to be at the head of every government’s agenda and may well soon be so as people wake up to the situation and give their governments the mandate for action.
— COLINJ. CAMPBELL, Chairman, Association for the Study of Peak Oil
The Oil Depletion Protocolis set to become a vital tool in the world’s attempts to adapt to global oil decline — truly a plan for a sensible energy future. It is clear and conceptually simple in such a way that it can be adopted at every level from international to individual. Get your city, state, and country to adopt the Protocol now! — JULIANDARLEY, Post Carbon Institute, and author of High Noon for Natural Gas
Stop what you are doing and read this book. It’s the clearest explanation of arguably the most devastating crisis of our lifetimes, and it also illuminates the most practical pathway to avert catastrophe.
Whatever your field, from business to environment to agriculture, this book will inform all your thinking about the future from here on, and your personal and political engagements in the next crucial decades, as nothing else in print.
— JERRYMANDER, founder, International Forum on Globalization; author,In the Absence of the Sacred andAlternatives to Economic Globalization: a Better World Is Possible
A strategy for a phased and cooperative post-petroleum world is logical, prudent, and in our self-interest. The alternative is to stumble over the edge into economic hardship and international conflict. In contrast, The Oil Depletion Protocoldescribes a graceful path to a world of sustainable prosperity that begins in a dialogue about rational responses to the inevitable decline of petroleum.
—DAVIDORR, Paul Sears Professor of Environmental Studies at Oberlin College and author ofDesign on the Edge
With this book, Richard Heinberg thoughtfully analyzes the critical economic problems that will soon arise when we reach Hubbert’s peak in world oil depletion. I highly recommend an equally thoughtful reading of this book. — HERMANE. DALY, Professor, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland
Richard Heinberg is the world’s pre-eminent author on the looming crisis that global petroleum depletion represents.The Oil Depletion Protocolis required reading for political leaders, policy planners and anyone who is hoping for a smooth landing in a world soon to be short on liquid fuels and even shorter on options.
— ANDREWMCNAMARA, MP, Parliament of Queensland, Australia
Peace and prosperity for your children and grandchildren may be ensured or squandered depending upon whether world leaders commit to work together to overcome the challenges of global peak oil. The United States is the world’s largest consumer of oil so Americans have the most to lose from global peak oil — imminent, inevitable and sustained declines in the world supply of conventional oil. Since the U.S. economy is the engine of the world economy, Richard Heinberg’s third book about global peak oil, The Oil Depletion Protocolshould be #1 on the reading list of America’s leaders as well as the leaders in every oil-consuming and oil-producing nation.The Oil Depletion Protocolprovides leaders and citizens a model for discussion and implementation of cooperative steps to reverse the unsustainable trend of increased depletion of the world’s rapidly shrinking oil reserves. — ROSCOEG. BARTLETT, Member of Congress
The proposal to cut oil imports to match depletion rate seems to be simple common sense. I’m happy to support the Protocol outlined in this book. — THERIGHTHONOURABLEMICHAELMEACHER, Member of Parliament, UK
NEWSOCIET YPUBLISHERS
C a t a l o g i n g i n P u b l i c a t i o n D a t a A catalog record for this publication is available from the National Library of Canada.
Copyright © 2006 by Richard Heinberg. All rights reserved.
Cover: Composite design and illustration by Diane MacIntosh. Photo: Getty Images/Photodisc Red. Photographer: ChristopherWilhelm.
Printed in Canada. First printing May 2006.
Paperbackisbn-13: 978-0-86571-563-9 Paperbackisbn-10: 0-86571-563-7
Inquiries regarding requests to reprint all or part of The Oil Depletion Protocolshould be addressed to New Society Publishers at the address below.
To order directly from the publishers, please call toll-free (North America) 1-800-567-6772, or order online at www.newsociety.com
Any other inquiries can be directed by mail to: New Society Publishers P.O. Box 189, Gabriola Island,bc v0r 1x0, Canada 1-800-567-6772
New Society Publishers’ mission is to publish books that contribute in fundamental ways to building an ecologically sustainable and just society, and to do so with the least possible impact on the environment, in a man-ner that models this vision. We are committed to doing this not just through education, but through action. We are acting on our commitment to the world’s remaining ancient forests by phasing out our paper supply from ancient forests worldwide. This book is one step toward ending global deforestation and climate change. It is printed on acid-free paper that is 100% old growth forest-free (100% post-consumer recycled), pro-cessed chlorine free, and printed with vegetable-based, low-VOC inks. For further information, or to browse our full list of books and purchase se-curely, visit our website at: www.newsociety.com
NEWSOCIETYPUBLISHER
www.newsociety.com
C O N T E N T S
Author’s Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
1. The Challenge of Peak Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Our Dependence on Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Peak Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 The Danger of Assuming an Easy Fix . . . . . . . . . 23 The Oil Depletion Protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2. Without the Protocol: A Century of Chaos? . . . . . 35 The Global Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Food and Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 War and Geopolitics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 With the Protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3. A Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Emissions-Based Proposals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 A Depletion-Based Proposal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 How Emissions-Based and Depletion-Based Agreements Could Work Together . . . . . . . . . 85
4. Dealing with Diminishing Oil: Options and Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Replacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Personal Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
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THE OIL DEPLETION PROTOCOL
Transportation: Long-Term Measures . . . . . . . . 110 Urban Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 Assigning Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
5. Discussion of the Protocol: Questions and Objections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
6. How Can the Protocol Be Adopted? . . . . . . . . . . 139 National EŒorts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 Municipal EŒorts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Personal EŒorts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
Appendix 1: The Oil Depletion Protocol (as drafted by Dr. Colin J. Campbell) . . . . . . . 153 Appendix 2: Sources of Further Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Appendix 3: Current World Oil Production (Chart) . . . . . . . 158
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 About the Author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
A U T H O R ’ S P R E FA C E
uring the past five yearsI have become im-D mersed in the subject of Peak Oil, writing two books on the topic and traveling widely to speak to audiences ranging from insurance executives to peace activists, warning of the perils of a lifestyle of oil addiction and of the coming impacts of petroleum depletion. During this time I have come to be-lieve that this is a problem unique in human history, with enormous implications for all components of modern indus-trial societies. Over the past century we came to rely on a cheap, abundant, and convenient source of energy to fuel economic growth through expanded transportation, indus-trial agriculture, and ever-diversifying plastics and chemicals industries. Now, as the availability of petroleum enters its in-evitable decline, we must Šnd ways to adjust—not only by identifying alternative fuels, but by curtailing many of the ac-tivities enabled by this remarkable substance. Doing so will require the coordinated eŒorts of industry, governments at all levels, and the general populace throughout the world. This will be a daunting challenge, to put it mildly. Modern societies have faced other challenges in the rela-tively recent past, including two World Wars and a Great De-pression, as well as more localized wars, famines, and natural disasters. Human beings are remarkably adaptable. How-ever in the present instance, the needed adaptation could be profoundly hindered by two likely impacts of Peak Oil—one
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