Energy Transition in Africa

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The world’s demand for energy coupled with a decreasing stock and supply of fossil fuels is propelling the transition to renewable sources of energy. This global movement presents many opportunities and challenges to Africa. If Africa can identify the opportunities and start to position itself, with its abundant sources of renewable energy, it stands a chance of being a global player in the production and supply of renewable energy. Achieving this will, however, require a combination of effective planning and investment on infrastructure, skills and technology. In determining how this should be done, this publication has brought together some of Africa’s leading experts in the field. The book sets out a foundation for Africa’s role in harnessing renewable energy by highlighting an ideal mix of investment, resource use, skills development and infrastructure management which the authors believe Africa needs in order to migrate successfully to a green economy that is supported by renewable energy. In policy terms, a pan-African approach is required to drive African policy on renewable energy that will cater for Africa’s economies. This should also demonstrate a political will to carry the policy through and to establish an environment that encourages private investment as well as providing access to carbon credit finances. In this new era of what has been termed ‘the second scramble for Africa’, the authors’ views on Africa’s potential to supply renewable energy present hope that Africa can lead in the supply of renewable energy.

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Published 25 March 2012
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EAN13 9780798303101
Language English
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Edited by Thokozani Simelane and Mohamed AbdelRahman
EAT
Energy Transition in Africa
First Publised in 2011 by te Africa Institute of Sout Africa PO Box 630 Pretoria 0001 Sout Africa
ISBN: 978-0-7983-0294-4
© Copyrigt Africa Institute of Sout Africa 2011
No part of tis publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or trans-mitted by any form or by any means, electronic, mecanical, potocopying, recording or oterwise, witout prior permission from te copyrigt owner.
To copy any part of tis publication, you may contact DALRO for information and copyrigt clearance.
Any unautorised copying could lead to civil liability and/or criminal sanctions.
Telephone:086 12 DALRO (from witin Sout Africa); +27 (0)11 712-8000 Telefax:+27 (0)11 403-9094 Postal Address: P O Box 31627, Braamfontein, 2017, Sout Africa www.dalro.co.za
Opinions expressed and conclusions arrived at in tis book are tose of te autors and sould not be attributed to te Africa Institute of Sout Africa.
he Africa Institute of Sout Africa is a tink tank and researc organisation, focusing on political, socio-economic, international and development issues in con-temporary Africa. he Institute conducts researc, publises books, monograps, occasional papers, policy briefs and a quarterly journal –Africa Insigt.he Institute olds regular seminars on issues of topical interest. It is also ome to one of te best library and documentation centres world-wide, wit materials on every African country. For more information, contact te Africa Institute at PO Box 630, Pretoria 0001, Sout Africa; Email ai@ai.org.za; or visit our website at ttp://www.ai.org.za.
Cover design: Berekile Pila Projects +27 (0)12 346 2168 Design, layout and typesetting:Berekile Pila Projects +27 (0)12 346 2168 Cartography:Elize van As, Africa Institute of Sout Africa Copyediting:Ken McGillivray Proofreading:Clarity Editorial Printing:Bubezi Printers
Contents
Foreword. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
About the Editorsxii. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
About the Contributorsxiii. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Abbreviations and Acronyms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xv
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix Mohamed AbdelRahman and Thokozani Simelane
An Overview of Renewable Energy Production in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix
Africa’s Role in Renewable Energy Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xx
Investment Approach Required to Migrate to a New Energy Paradigm . . . . xxi
Contents of this Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxii
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxiii
1 Energy revolution in Africa and its future potential in supplying energy to the world. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Kamelia Youssef and Shingirirai Mutanga
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Evolution of Africa’s Energy Statistics from 1973 to 2008 (2009) . . . . . . . . . . 2
Status of Africa’s Energy Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Advantages of Using Renewable Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
The Status of Africa’s Energy Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
The Role of Africa in Supplying Energy to the World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Energy Transition in Africa
iii
Contents
Renewable Energy Technologies as Drivers of Africa’s Energy Supply . . . . . 7
Hydropower in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
Biomass Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
Geothermal Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
Wind Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
Solar Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Nuclear Energy in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
2 Africa’s nuclear power potential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Its rise, recession, opportunities and constraints Mojalefa Murphy
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Basic Science and Technology of Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Uranium Enrichment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
The Uses of Nuclear Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Africa’s Potential to Exploit Nuclear Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Nuclear Industrial Development in South Africa: 1950 to 1970 . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Ratcheted Up Nuclear Industrialisation and Weapons Development: 1970 to mid-1980s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Rapid Nuclear De-industrialisation: Mid-1980s to Date . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Post-Apartheid Nuclear Vision Deficiency Disorder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
Sabotage of African Nuclear Power Potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51
3 State of energy infrastructure in Africa55. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . How much investment is needed to migrate to renewable energy? Walid ElKhattam, Salma Hussein and Mohamed AbdelRahman
iv
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Overview of Africa’s Sub-Regions and Power Pools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Africa’s Current Energy Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Non-Renewable Energy Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Energy Transition in Africa
Contents
Overview of Africa’s Electricity Accessibility and Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . 71
Electricity Infrastructure in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Scaling Up Renewable Energy in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Current Renewable Energy Applications in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Barriers to Renewable Energy Development in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Financing Renewable Energy in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Conclusions and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
4 Human capital requirements for sustainable renewable energy production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101 Timothy Simalenga
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101
Overview of Existing Training Needs and Skills Development . . . . . . . . . . 102
Long-term Education and Training Strategy for Renewable Energy Engineers and Technicians . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
Human Capital Development through Formal Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Analysing a Project for Renewable Energy Training and Development . . . . 107
Human Capital Development through Informal Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
Building a Sustainable Human Capital through Informal Training . . . . . . . . 109
Informal/In-service Training and Human Capital Opportunities in the Renewable Energy Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110
Human Resource Development for Research and Renewable Energy Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
Conclusion and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .116
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .120
5 Investment requirements for Africa to lead in renewable energy production and distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Salma Hussein, Walid ElKhattam and Mohamed AbdelRahman
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Electricity Industry Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124
Cash Flow in the Electricity Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127
Types of Electricity Sector Organisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Regional Integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Energy Transition in Africa
v
Contents
Nature of Electricity Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Bottlenecks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Prerequisites for Resource Mobilisation to the African Continent’s Energy Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .131
Steps to Establish an Investment-Conducive Environment for Large Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
Small and Medium Enterprises in Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Financing Approaches in Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Egypt: A Case Study of Renewable Energy Projects Development in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .141
6 Africa’s technology options for renewable energy production and distribution143. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Bamikole Amigun, Martin Kaggwa, Josephine Musango, Shingirirai Mutanga, Thokozani Simelane and William Stafford
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Africa’s Renewable Energy Potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
State of Renewable Energy Technologies in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Requirements for Successful Take-off of Renewable Energy Technologies in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
Conversion Technologies for Renewable Energy Resources Available in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
Industrial Ecology of Renewable Energy Technologies – A System Dynamics Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
Notes and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
7 Conclusion and Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .173
vi
Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .173
Energy Transition in Africa
Foreword
he prevailing period of energy transition provides a myriad development opportunities for Africa. To capitalise on te opportunities presented, Africa needs to understand its strengts and capabilities of te role it is going to play in a global economy driven by renewable energy sources. Africa as te advantage of migrating to renewable energy sources, and tus becoming a major supplier of renewable energy to te world. Unlike most developed countries, Africa as a minimal investment locked into fossil-fuel-based energy sources. It is naturally endowed wit various sources of renewable energy and tus as an opportunity to lead te field in te provision of renewable energy. But to acieve tis Africa needs to develop or acquire tecnologies tat will be relevant and affordable, design strategies tat will guide te process of migrating to renewable sources of energy, reduce ig levels of illiteracy among te users of te tecnologies to be deployed, and invest in te infrastructure tat will be required to migrate to renewable sources of energy. his book discusses all tese matters and is tus of interest to read-ers in all African countries, and indeed furter abroad. It also provides an interesting account of ow Africa as lost out on nuclear energy. his raises a strong warning tat Africa must not step aside wen te rest of te world is developing its capacity in searc for alternative sources of energy. Wile Africa’s inability to benefit from its large deposits of uranium can be attributed to te ig cost of nuclear power, a closer examination of te development of Africa’s nuclear capabilities reveals considerable social and economic dynamics tat relentlessly undermine its scientific and tecnological advancement. At tis crucial moment in energy transition, I trust tat Africa is not going to repeat te mistakes of te past. I ave found te contents of tis book interesting in tat tey igligt Africa’s strengt in participating in renewable energy developments, te scale of investment needed, uman capital require-ments and te tecnological options tat are available to Africa. I would like to tank te Africa Institute of Sout Africa for con-tributing to te development of knowledge about and for Africa, and I
Energy Transition in Africavii
Foreword
encourage it to continue to do so, especially using te innovative model of working wit African scolars across te continent and te diaspora to make te vision of te twenty-first century an African century. I ope tat academics, policy makers and te public will find tis publication a useful reference in te course of teir work or general reading interests.
Naledi Pandor Minister of Science and Tecnology Sout Africa
viiiEnergy Transition in Africa
Preface
he world’s energy consumption and demand is increasing exponen-tially. In 2007, te world consumed an estimated 18 trillion kW of generated energy. By 2030, te demand for energy will ave increased to 31 trillion kW, of wic an estimated 20 trillion will be generated from renewable sources. Of critical concern is tat te world’s supply of fossil fuels and its reserves are decreasing, and locating new reserves as become difficult. hus it is imperative to explore renewable sources of energy. he need to migrate to renewable energy is furter driven by people’s desire and commitment to alt climate cange and its effects. his sift in energy sources pose bot a callenge and opportunity for Africa, as it will need substantial investment in infrastructure, tec-nology and uman capital to be able to catc up wit te international trends of generating and supplying energy from renewable sources. Africa as te advantage tat it is endowed wit abundant sources of renewable energy, wic, if fully exploited, can place te continent at te forefront of te world’s energy production and supply. An indication of te interest in Africa, is tat te Desertec Foundation intends to use solar power generated in Africa to supply Europe wit 15 per cent of its energy needs troug an investment of €400 billion from 2011 to 2031. Wile tis appears to old ope for Africa, te reality is tat te continent still as a uge sortage of energy. Only 34 per cent of Africa’s population ave access to modern forms of energy, wit large disparities between countries, and between urban and rural areas witin coun-tries. he energy supplies will ave to increase at least four- to sixfold by 2025 for te continent to meet its energy needs. Currently, 30 African countries experience cronic blackouts. herefore power sortages are te single most debilitating on Africa’s economic growt. he most severe callenges facing Africa wit regard to energy gen-eration include inadequate development of te energy infrastructure, ig capital costs attaced to energy projects, te lack of finance and investment in energy projects, and lack of tecnical expertise. Solving tese problems will require efficient planning, investment and efficient
Energy Transition in Africaix