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Feeding the World in the 21st Century

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322 Pages
English

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Utilizes a historical understanding of the current global food situation as the basis for analyzing the ultimate challenge on how to feed an ever-expanding world of 10 billion people.


Agriculture has successfully managed to increase production faster than demand for nearly one and a half centuries, and agricultural policy has developed through times of impasse during this period. This book provides and utilizes a historical understanding of the current global food situation as the basis for analyzing the ultimate challenge on how to feed an ever-expanding world of 10 billion people.


Foreword - Niek Koning; Chapter 1: Will Agriculture Succeed?; Chapter 2: Supply and Demand of Agricultural Produce; Chapter 3: Ideas of Agriculture, Trade and Society through Changing Times; Chapter 4: Agriculture and Development - What Do the History Tell?; Chapter 5: Specificities of Agriculture; Chapter 6: Lack of Food Supply; Chapter 7: What Made the Oversupply of Agricultural Products?; Chapter 8: Agriculture’s Role in Development; Chapter 9: Development's Role in Agriculture; Chapter 10: Increased Agricultural Production in Africa; Chapter 11: International Agricultural Trade Policy after WWII; Chapter 12: Agricultural Policy for the 21st Century; Chapter 13: The Challenge of the 21st Century; Chapter 14: Literature

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Published 15 May 2010
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EAN13 9780857286727
Language English
Document size 30 MB

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JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 1 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb 3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 05CE5C23 /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels
Feeding the World in the 21st Century: A Historical Analysis of Agriculture and Society
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JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 2 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb 3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 0193C91C /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels
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JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 3 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb 3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 0E164433 /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels
Christian Anton Smedshaug Feeding the World in the 21st Century: A Historical Analysis of Agriculture and Society
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JOBNAME: Anthem−feedworld PAGE: 4 SESS: 67 OUTPUT: Wed Feb 3 09:46:33 2010 SUM: 33294766 /production/antheum/books/feedworld/a−prels
Anthem Press An imprint of Wimbledon Publishing Company
This edition first published in UK and USA 2010 by ANTHEM PRESS 75–76 Blackfriars Road, London SE1 8HA, UK or PO Box 9779, London SW19 7ZG, UK and 244 Madison Ave. #116, New York, NY 10016, USA
Part of The Anthem Other Canon Series
First published in Norway by Universitetsforlaget 2008. Copyright © Christian Anton Smedshaug 2010; Foreword © Niek Koning.
English translation by John Irons.
This translation has been published with the financial support of NORLA and Yara Norway.
The moral right of the authors has been asserted.
All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written permission of both the copyright owner and the above publisher of this book.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been requested.
ISBN13: 978 1 84331 867 5 (Pbk) ISBN10: 1 84331 867 9 (Pbk) ISBN13: 978 1 84331 892 7 (eBook) ISBN10: 1 84331 892 X (eBook)
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Foreword by Niek Koning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 1 Will agriculture succeed?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The present challenge. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The issues involved . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 2 Supply and demand of agricultural products. . . . . . . . Who are the big food producers? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Who has a food surplus and who has a deficit? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trade with agricultural commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Export of agricultural commodities from South to North . . . . . . . . . . The demand for agricultural commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Oil and agricultural commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Biofuel production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Biofuels in the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Supply – new land . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Loss of arable land . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Yield . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Production challenges – disease, water and climate change . . . . . . . . Disease . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The fight over water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Climate change and agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture may suffer in the South . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Supply and demand after the Second World War . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prices of temperate commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tropical products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Price increases in the twentyfirst century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The problems of rising prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rapid production increase when prices rise? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Price developments for agricultural products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 3 Ideas about agriculture, trade and society through changing times. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The physiocrats – agriculture as the basis of the economy . . . . . . . . . . Free markets and the balance between town and country . . . . . . . . . Adam Smith – his own age and posterity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . International division of labour between agriculture and industry . . . . . Ricardo and agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Consequences of Ricardo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ‘Infant industries’ and their protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Modern agricultural policies – The New Deal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Countercyclical policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Mathematics takes over the economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Recent thoughts about trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Neoliberalism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Political consequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture and neoliberalism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The closing stages of neoliberalism? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Will the theory of free trade fail? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Old clashes, new players . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Chapter 4 Agriculture and development – what does history tell us?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Settler countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AngloSaxon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Spanish settler countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Plantations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . European differences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Primary produce versus industrial commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The role of the state and import controls in the first industrialisation . . Asian miracles – phase two. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Free trade and development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 5 The specificities of agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture and natural preconditions – ‘the law of diminishing returns’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agricultural productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The social aspect of agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Limited selfregulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture and the paradoxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture versus industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 6 Deficit of food. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Famine in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Grain stores in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The famines decrease . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Systemcreated crises in Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Hunger – also a consequence of bad systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agricultural commodities and EastWest relations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agricultural commodities from the colonies and coal from the ground . India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Asian famine increases the Western lead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Falling hunger mortality – for good? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 7 What created the surplus of food?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The first modern agricultural revolution – the end of the fallow system.
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The second agricultural revolution – new land areas . . . . . . . . . . . . The first agricultural crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Political differences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Same crisis – different answers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Colonies and feudal conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The third agricultural revolution – industrial fertiliser and fossil fuels . . The second agricultural crisis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The postwar period – strong growth in production . . . . . . . . . . . . The 1960s: The Green Revolution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The 1970s: Scarcity and new efforts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The 1980s: Food surpluses and new exporters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The 1990s: A new trade organisation and falling prices . . . . . . . . . . The 2000s: Disagreement as to which path to take and increasing prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The twentyfirst century – New production increase . . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 8 The role of agriculture in development. . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture versus industry during development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture and poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture and the need for capital when developing . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 9 The role of development in agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . The farmer – a cash cow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Production – incentives and productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ownership of land . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Land reform – Asia versus Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Profitability – does the worldmarket price increase reach the farmer? . Farmer cooperatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Productivity factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Input factors and credit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Water and soil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . What is the ‘Green Revolution’? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Green Revolution in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Criticisms of the Green Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 10 Increased yields in Africa’s agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . .
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Africa’s challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A productivity revolution in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Structural adjustment programmes and Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Structural adjustment programmes and agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . What is needed? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Africa’s own initiative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A Marshall plan for Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AIDS and agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trade first, food later? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cotton exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The effect of concentrating on exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Who is going to foot the bill? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The chance of success . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 11 International trade agreements after the Second World War. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ITO and GATT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Uruguay Round . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WTO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Doha Round . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Export subsidy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Domestic support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Market access . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Who is against whom? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Exporters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Importers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Developed against developing country? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Offensive and defensive national interests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Why can’t they agree? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Will G20 replace G8? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The effects of reduced agricultural subsidies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Food aid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . What do the economic models say? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 12 Agricultural policies for the 21st century. . . . . . . . . . A new global agricultural policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . National policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Production, imports and stockpiling for a secured supply . . . . . . . . .
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Predictable exports and imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . International market regulation for tropical commodities . . . . . . . . . Principles for primary produce agreement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . What can netimporters in the North do? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Will WTO listen? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 13 The challenge of the 21st century. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Food production should double . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture and society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Literature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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