Accelerating Trade and Integration in the Caribbean
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Accelerating Trade and Integration in the Caribbean

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The main objective of this report is to help policymakers in the Caribbean design an agenda of policy actions to accelerate trade integration and growth and reduce poverty. The report is a joint response from the World Bank and the Organization of American States (OAS) to a demand statement from the member states of CARICOM, formulated by the Caribbean Regional Negotiating Machinery and the CARICOM Secretariat, to strengthen the analytical underpinnings of the linkages between trade, economic growth, and poverty. It aims at centering the Caribbean's next round of trade reforms and its overall agenda around trade on these key thematic areas.
The report provides an overview of the economic and trade system context of the Caribbean, under which the new trade environment is operating. It then discusses the opportunities and challenges for the Caribbean associated with the new trade environment. It finally quantifies the gains from global trade integration using a dynamic macroeconomic analysis.
The report provides policy priorities to accelerating Caribbean integration into the world economy and to reap the benefits of global competition. Each part of the report focuses on a key question and adds value by providing an in-depth analysis of the issues raised and laying the foundations for policy recommendations described in the last chapter of the report:
* Part I (Overview of economic and trade system context): is Caribbean's economic and trade system sound enough to sustain the new era of its global trade relations which is being shaped?
* Part II (Focuses on the analysis of the new opportunities and challenges of the new trade environment): what are the opportunities and challenges that the new trade environment offers to the Caribbean?
* Part III (Presents an assessment of the impact of the EPA on growth and poverty using two types of macroeconomic models): what are the gains in terms of growth and poverty reduction of the recently negotiated EPA?

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A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY
Accelerating Trade and
Integration in the Caribbean
Policy Options for Sustained Growth, Job
Creation, and Poverty Reduction
THE WORLD BANKA WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY
Accelerating Trade and Integration
in the Caribbean
Policy Options for Sustained Growth, Job Creation,
and Poverty Reduction
Emmanuel Pinto Moreira
Pamela Coke-Hamilton
Document of the World Bank and the Organization of American States,
co-produced with the Governments of CARIFORUM Countries
THE WORLD BANK ORGANIZATION OF AMERICAN STATES
Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C.Copyright © 2009
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank
1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.
All rights reserved
Manufactured in the United States of America
First Printing: June 2009
Revised Printing: June 2010
printed on recycled paper
2 3 4 5 12 11 10
World Bank Country Studies are among the many reports originally prepared for internal use
as part of the continuing analysis by the Bank of the economic and related conditions of its
developing member countries and to facilitate its dialogs with the governments. Some of the reports
are published in this series with the least possible delay for the use of governments, and the aca-
demic, business, financial, and development communities. The manuscript of this paper there-
fore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally-edited
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The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s)
and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and
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ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-8017-8
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8019-2
ISSN: 0253-2123 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8017-8
Cover photos: Early evening over St. George’s harbour by Lawrence Worcester/ Lonely Planet
Images. St. George’s Market Square courtesy Grenada Board of Tourism.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Accelerating trade and integration in the Caribbean : policy options for sustained growth, job
creation, and poverty reduction.
p. cm. -- (A World Bank country study)
“Document of the World Bank and the Organization of American States, co-produced with
the Governments of CARIFORUM Countries.”
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8213-8017-8 -- ISBN 978-0-8213-8019-2 (electronic)
1. Caribbean Area--Economic integration. 2. Free trade--Caribbean Area. 3. Caribbean Area--
Economic policy. I. World Bank. II. Organization of American States. III. Caribbean Forum.
HC151.A53 2009
337.1'7729--dc22
2009015959Contents
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
Abbreviations and Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii
Part I: Overview of Economic and Trade System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1. Macroeconomic and Structural Constraints Facing Trade Reform
in the Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Caribbean Economy and Macroeconomic Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Structural and Physical Constraints. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2. Caribbean Regional and Global Trading Relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Intra-Caribbean and Regional Integration Issues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
The Caribbean and the Global Trading Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Structural, Institutional, and Political Constraints to Trade Integration . . . . . . . . . 55
3. Trade Patterns and Flows, and Competitiveness Issues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Trade Performance, Trade Flows, and Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Competitiveness, Specialization, and Complementarity70
Binding Constraints to Competitiveness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Part II: Challenges and New Opportunities81
4. New Areas of Opportunities and Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Trade in Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Financial Services88
Services in the CARIFORUM-EC Economic Partnership Agreement . . . . . . . . . . . 92
5. Capitalizing on a Changing International Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Longer-term Trade Strategy and Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
Managing Transitional Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Alleviating Structural and Institutional Constraints on “Old” and “New”
Opportunities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
iiiiv Contents
Part III: Quantifying the Impact of Trade Reform on Growth, Job Creation,
and Poverty Reduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
6. Quantifying the Gains from Global Trade Integration—A Dynamic
Macroeconomic Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Assessing the Gains from Trade: A Dynamic Multi-Country Analysis . . . . . . . . . 113
Aom Trade: A Dynamic Analysis for Jamaica . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Aid for Trade, Growth, and Poverty Reduction: A Dynamic Analysis for the
Dominican Republic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
7. From Diagnosis to Policy Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Reducing Macroeconomic and Fiscal Imbalances, and Investing
in Trade Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
Accelerating National Trade Policy Reforms and Improving Investment
Incentives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
Adjusting to Preferences Erosion, Accelerating the Implementation
of the CSME, and Using the EPA for Enhanced Competitiveness
and Global Trade Integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Developing a Long-term Trade Strategy with a Focus on Increased
Competitiveness and New Areas of Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
Reinforcing CARIFORUM Regional Institutions with a Focus
on Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
Implications for the Aid for Trade Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
A p p e ndix T ables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
T e c hnical A p p e ndix es . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
A. Infrastructure, Trade, and Growth—Evidence and Implications
for Trade Reform in the Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
B. Aid for Trade—Rationale and Implications for Trade Reform in Caribbean
Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
C. Employment and Poverty Effects of Trade Reforms—Evidence and Policy
Lessons for the Caribbean. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275
D. Key Characteristics of the CGE Models—GLOBE and Jamaican Models . . . . 291
E. Structure of the Jamaican Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297
F. SPAHD Models—Overall Structure and Links with Human
Development Indicators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307
LIST OF TABLES
1.1. Caribbean Economies: Real GDP Growth, 1997–2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2. Car Inflation Rates, 1997–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Contents v
1.3. Caribbean Economies: Merchandise Trade Balance, 1997–2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.4. Car Current Account Balance,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.5. Caribbean Economies: Overall Fiscal Balance, 1997–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.6. Car Public Sector External Debt, 1997–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.7. Unemployment Rates in Selected Caribbean Countries, 2002–06 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.8. Selected Infrastructure Indicators of Caribbean Countries and Comparable
Developing Countries, 2004–06 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.9. Logistic Performance Index of Caribbean Countries and Comparable
Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.10. Per Capita Consumption of Electric Power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
1.11. Air Transport, Freight 21
2.1. CARICOM: CET and National Applied Tariffs in Selected
Countries, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.2. Share of Merchandise Exports by Country, 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
2.3. Comparing the Frameworks: The EPA versus the Lomé/Cotonou Agreement . . . 51
2.4. Caribbean Bilateral and Regional Trade Architecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.5. Financing of CARICOM Secretariat: Member State Contributions . . . . . . . . . . . 59
3.1. Index of Average Wage of Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
3.2. The Similarity between Caribbean Export and Partners’ Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
3.3. The Similarity between Carts and Partners’ Exports 76
3.4. Average Tariffs in the Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
4.1. Trade in Services Contribution to GDP and Exports in CARIFORUM . . . . . . . . . 85
4.2. Tourism Contribution to CARICOM Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
5.1. Doing Business: Selected Indicators in Caribbean and Comparable
Developing Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
6.1. Sectors, Factors, and Regions in the GLOBE Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
6.2. Experiments Description in the GLOBE Model, CARIFORUM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
6.3. Summary of Experiments: CARIFORUM Duties on EU Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
6.4. Schematic Summary of Experiments: EU Duties on CARIFORUM Imports . . . 118
6.5. Aggregate Results with Balanced Macro, Factor Tax Adjustment, Unemployed
Unskilled Labor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
6.6. CARIFORUM Imports from the United States for GLOBE
Model Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
6.7. CARIFORUM Imports from the EU15 for GLOBE Model Experiments. . . . . . . 120
6.8. Gross Output by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE Moiments121
6.9. Aggregate Results with Balanced Macro, Factor Tax Adjustment,
Unemployed Unskilled Labor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
6.10. Experiments Description in the Jamaica Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124vi Contents
6.11. Aggregate Results for Jamaica CGE Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
6.12. Aggregate Real Imports and Exports by Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
6.13. Factor Employment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
6.14. Gross Output by Sector, Jamaica CGE Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
6.15. Trade Diversion Scenarios, Jamaica Model 129
6.16. Macro Results, Trade Diversion Scenarios, Jamaica Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
6.17. Aggregate Real Imports and Exports by Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
6.18. Dominican Republic Human Development Indicators, 2008–20
Baseline Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
6.19. Tariff Loss Compensated by Higher Indirect Taxes—Deviations
from Baseline, 2008–20 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
6.20. Aid as a Temporary Compensation Scheme—Deviations
from Baseline, 2008–20 137
6.21. Aid Increase Goes to Public Investment—Deviations
from Baseline, 2008–20 139
6.22. Aid Increase Goes to Public Infrastructure Investment—Deviations
from Baseline, 2008–20 140
A1. Caribbean Economies, Real GDP Growth, 1997–2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
A2. Car Inflation Rates,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
A3. Caribbean Economies, Merchandise Trade Balance in Percent
of GDP, 1997–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
A4. Caribbean Economies. Current Account Balance, 1997–2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
A5. Caronomies, Public Sector External Debt,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
A6. Caribbean Ec Structure of Public Finance, 1997–2006 159
A7. Regional Export Shares by Commodity: CARIFORUM
Reference Equilibrium. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
A8. Regional Import Shares by Commodity: CARIFORUM
Reference Equilibrium 168
A9. Private Consumption by Commodity CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
A10. Total Exports by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments 170
A11. CARIFORUM Exports by Region of Destination for GLOBE
Model Experiments 171
A12. CARIFORUM Exports by Region ofOBE
Model Experiments 172
A13. Schematic Summary of Experiments: CARIFORUM Duties
on EU Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
A14. Schematic Summary of Experiments: EU Duties on CARIFORUM
Imports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174Contents vii
A15. Macro Results for GLOBE Model Experiments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
A16. Gross Output by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
A17. Total Exports by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments 178
A18. Total Imports by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments 180
A19. CARIFORUM Imports by Region of Origin for GLOBE
Model Experiments 182
A20. CARIFORUM Imports by Region of Origin for GLOBE
Model Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
A21. CARIFORUM Exports by Region of Destination for GLOBE
Model Experiments 186
A22. CARIFORUM Exports by Region ofOBE
Model Experiments 188
A23. Macro Results for GLOBE Model Experiments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
A24. Gross Output by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments 191
A25. Total Exports by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
A26. Total Imports by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments 195
A27. CARIFORUM Imports by Region of Origin for GLOBE
Model Experiments 197
A28. CARIFORUM Imports by Region of Origin for GLOBE
Model Experiments 199
A29. CARIFORUM Exports by Region of Destination for GLOBE
Model Experiments 201
A30. CARIFORUM Exports by Region ofOBE
Model Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
A31. Macro Results for GLOBE Model Experiments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
A32. CARIFORUM Imports by Region of Origin for GLOBE
Model Experiments 206
A33. CARIFORUM Imports by Region of Origin for GLOBE
Model Experiments 207
A34. Gross Output by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments 208
A35. Total Exports by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
A36. CARIFORUM Exports by Region of Destination for GLOBE
Model Experiments 210viii Contents
A37. CARIFOR UM Exports by Region of Destination for GLOBE
Model Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
A38. Private Consumption by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments 212
A39. Aggregate Results with Balanced Macro, Factor Tax Adjustment, Unemployed
Unskilled Labor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
A40. CARIFORUM Imports by Region of Origin for GLOBE
Model Experiments 214
A41. CARIFORUM Imports by Region of Origin for GLOBE
Model Experiments 215
A42. Gross Output by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
A43. Total Exports by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE
Model Experiments 217
A44. CARIFORUM Exports by Region of Destination for GLOBE
Model Experiments 218
A45. CARIFORUM Exports by Region ofOBE Model
Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
A46. Private Consumption by Sector CARIFORUM for GLOBE Model
Experiments 220
A47. Structural Shares by Commodity: Jamaica Base 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
A48. Regional Export Shares by Commodity: J . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
A49. Regional Import Shares by Coy: Jamaica Base 2000 223
A50. Factor Shares within Sector: Jamaica Base 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
A51. Dominican Republic Human Development Indicators, 2007–20,
Baseline Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
A52. Tariff Loss Compensated by Higher Indirect Taxes—Deviations
from Baseline, 2008–20 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
A53. Aid as a Temporary Compensation Scheme—Deviations
from Baseline, 2008–20 231
A54. Aid Increase Goes to Public Investment—Deviations from Baseline,
2008–20. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
A55. Aid Increase Goes to Public Infrastructure Investment—Deviations
from Baseline, 2008–20 239
A56. Aid Sustained Longer to Public Investment—Deviations from Baseline,
2008–20 243
A57. Aid Sustained Longer to Public Infrastructure Investment—Deviations
from Baseline, 2008–20 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
A58. Labor Force That Has Migrated to OECD Countries and the USA by Level
of Schooling, 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283