« Déclenchement possible d’une pandémie mondiale »

« Déclenchement possible d’une pandémie mondiale »

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« Déclenchement possible d’une pandémie mondiale »
Conseil national du Renseignement américain, page 75

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Published 31 March 2020
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Potential Emergence of a Global Pandemic The emergence of a novel, highlytransmissible, and virulent human respiratoryillness for which there are no adequate countermeasures could initiate aglobalpaandemic. If pandemic disease emerges by2025, internal and cross-border tension and conflict will become more likelyas nations struggle—with degraded capabilities—to control the movement ofpopulations seekingto avoid infection or maintain access to resources. The emergence of apandemic disease depends upon the naturalgenetic mutation or reassortment of currentlycirculatingdisease strains or the emergence of a newpathogen into the human population. Experts consider highlypathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strains, such as H5N1, to be likelycandidates for such a transformation, but otherpathogens—such as the SARS coronavirus or other influenza strains—also have thispotential. If apandemic disease emerges, itprobablywill first occur in an area marked byhighpopulation densityand close association between humans and animals, such as manyareas of China and Southeast Asia, where humanpopulations live in closeproximityUnreto livestock. gulated animal husbandrypractices could allow a zoonotic disease such as H5N1 to circulate in livestock populations—increasingthe opportunityfor mutation into a strain withpandemicpotential. To propagate effectively, a disease would have to be transmitted to areas of higherpopulation density. Under such a scenario, inadequate health-monitoringcapabilitywithin the nation of origin probablywouldprevent earlySlowidentification of the disease. public health response would delaythe realization that a highlytransmissiblepathogen had emerged. Weeks mightpass before definitive laboratoryresults could be obtained confirmingthe existence of a disease with pandemicpotential. In the interim, clusters of the disease would begin to appear in towns and cities within Southeast Asia. Despite limits imposed on international travel, travelers with mild symptoms or who were asymptomatic could carrythe disease to other continents. Waves of new cases would occur everyfew months. The absence of an effective vaccine and a near universal lack of immunitywould renderpopulations vulnerable to infection. In this worst-case, tens to hundreds of millions of Americans within the US Homeland would become ill and b deaths would mount into the tens of millions. Outside the US, critical infrastructure degradation and economic loss on aglobal scale would result as approximatelya third of the worldwide population became ill and hundreds of millions died. _____________________________ a  US andglobal health organizations currentlyare workingto developvaccines that mayprevent or mitigate influenzapbreakthrouandemics. A gh in the next severalyears could reduce the riskposed bypandemic influenza duringupcomingdecades. b  How fast a disease spreads, how manypeople become sick, how longtheystaysick, the mortalityrate, and the symptoms and after-effects will varyaccordingto the specific characteristics of whatever pathogen is responsible for apscenarioandemic. This positsplausible characteristics that fall within a range ofpossibilities for these variables.
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