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Elective Course Details for Exchange Students Term 5, 2010-11

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25 Pages
English

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Elective Course Details for Exchange Students Term 5, 2010-11

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Elective Course Details for Exchange Students
 
Term 5, 2010-11
 
 
 
 
 
Term 5
 Elective Details
Business Forecasting Economics 4
Course Area Credit Load  Introduction: Planning is inevitable for proper utilization of resources and opportunities. This is so at all levels of decision-making, including the Economy, Firm and Individual. Planning entails forecasts of future incomes, sales/purchases, prices, interest rates, exchange rates, growth rate, taxes, social and political environment, among other such variables/events. In making strategic decisions under uncertainty, we all make forecasts. Forecasting has become relatively easy and convenient due to easy access of computers, and long and reliable data. Also, the said exercise has become difficult because of increasing difficulty caused by growing globalization and occurrences of crises affecting all sections of society. The value of reliable forecasts needs no exaggeration. Today, only those leaders with the power of long -term foresight will seize and hold true competitive advantage.  The course will deal with (a) Data, their sources and collection (b) Forecasting techniques, both quantitative and qualitative (c) Evaluation of forecasts’ accuracy (d) Case studies on forecasts of economy wide and company based variables in various areas, including sales, prices, growth rates, foreign exchange rates, etc.  The course is intended to help budding managers to do a better job of anticipating and thereby better manage uncertainty by using effective forecasting techniques.  Topics:  Introduction to Forecasting: What, Why, How, Reliability Data, Sources, Interpolation/Extrapolation and Pattern Smoothing Methods and Applications Decomposition Method and Applications Regression Technique Regression Issues Applications of Regression Technique   
 
 
 
Leading Indicators, Filtering and Judgemental techniques Simultaneous Equations models QualitativeDependent Variables’ and Applications of Logit and Probit Models in Forecasting Auto-Regressive, ARCH and GARCH Models for Forecasting Box-Jenkins(ARIMA) model and Applications Evaluation of Forecasts  
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