International Risk Cycles
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International Risk Cycles

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International Risk Cycles Franc¸ois Gourio∗ Michael Siemer† Adrien Verdelhan‡ August 2010 Abstract This paper presents a two-country real business cycle model with two novel features: (1) exogenous shocks to worldwide uncertainty, (2) heterogeneous exposures to the world aggregate shock. We show that these two features lead to significant progress in tackling internationational finance puzzles. When world risk increases, investment decreases and a worldwide recession follows, even in the absence of technology shocks.
  • mean 2.69 2.76 3.95 6.57 std 5.62 7.55 7.31 10.24 sr
  • -0.47 2.22 2.29 3.48 6.10 std 11.63 10.65 10.30 11.00 11.39 sr
  • -2.12 0.23 1.63 3.33 14.72 std
  • international macroeconomics
  • equity markets
  • volatility
  • macroeconomic aggregates
  • currency
  • risk
  • model

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Reads 18
Language English
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