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Economic Bulletin
January 2012
Türk Telekom
Capital Markets & Investor Relations[This page is intentionally left blank]







Economic Bulletin

January 2012






Türk Telekom

Capital Markets & Investor Relations
























Disclaimer

This report has been prepared by Türk Telekom (the Company). This document contains information, text, images, logos, and/or
other material that is protected by copyrights, database rights, trademarks, or other proprietary rights. It may not be reproduced,
distributed, published or used in any way by any person for any purpose without the prior written consent of Türk Telekom or in the
case of third party materials, the owner of that content.

The material contains statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in this
material that is not a statement of historical fact is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties
and other factors. Except to the extent required by law, we assume no obligations to update the forward-looking statements con-
tained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. The interpretations,
estimates and/or opinions reflect the judgment of the authors, not the Company, on the date of this document and are subject to
changes without notice.

This report does not constitute an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities
and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information used in this report
has been obtained from public sources that are believed to be reliable. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on
the information contained in this report or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. None of the Company nor any of its sharehold-
ers, directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any
use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.











In this issue, main macroeconomic indicators and Turkey’s stock
and bond markets’ performances as well as exchange rate move-
ments are discussed.

Furthermore, leading macroeconomic indicators from the US and
European economies are also analyzed.

We have four special topics in this issue. The first one discusses
rdthe 3 quarter GDP statistics in-depth. The second one covers
the IMF’s latest Article IV Consultation Report on Turkey as well
as its latest projections. The third one is about the 2012 Central
Government Budget, which was recently accepted in the Parlia-
ment, and its main parameters. The last one is about the Central
Bank’s 2012 Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy, which stirred
up endless discussions in the market.


Hope to meet you again in the next issue…




[This page is intentionally left blank]




CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY……………………….……………….……….6

WHAT TO WATCH IN JANUARY....…………….……....….………......7

RECAP OF TURKISH MACRO DATA
Gross Domestic Product…………………………...…………...8
Industrial Production….….….....…………………….9
Capacity Utilization Rate…........………......……………….….9
Unemployment……..…..….……………............……..……...10
Inflation….…...……………….....……..……...….…..….….....10
Current Account Balance……..…………………...………….11
Fiscal Balance…………...……….……...….……..……..……12
Monetary Policy.……...…....……...…....…...…………..…….13
Consumer Confidence Index.…….....………….…………….14
Real Sector Confidence Index………...…...…………………14
Survey of Expectations.…….…......…………...….…..…...…15
Debt Indicators…………………...…………………………….17

RECAP OF EU & US MACRO DATA
Gross Domestic Product.......….…....……….…………..…...18
Inflation….…...……....……...……..………………..…….…...19
Current Account Balance………...……………………20
Monetary Policy.…….……............….…...……………..…….22
Consumer Confidence Index….…….……...…….…………..24

TURKISH MARKETS REVIEW
Stock Market…………………....…………………………..….25
Bonds and Bills Market….…………...……..………...…..…..26
Exchange Rates…………...………...……..………………….27

SPECIAL TOPICS
Gross Domestic Product: Catch Me If You Can…...…........29
The IMF’s Article IV Consultation with Turkey:
Old Habits Don’t Die Easily…….……………………………..31
The 2012 Central Government Budget:
All Set And Ready……………………………………………..33
The 2012 Monetary and
Exchange Rate Policy….….…………...……………………..35


MONTHLY CALENDARS (TURKEY & GLOBAL)

TÜRK TELEKOM GROUP CORPORATE FACT SHEET




EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
 Economic activity displayed no sign of moderation in 3Q as TURKEY
the Turkish economy grew by 8.2% y/y in 3Q 2011 (after
the 12.0% growth in 1Q and 8.8% growth in 2Q).

 The unemployment rate edged down from 9.2% in August
to 8.8% in September, which is a record low according to
the new time series starting from 2005.

 Following the solid 12.0% y/y growth in September, the in-
dustrial production managed to increase by 7.3% y/y in Oc-
tober.

 Compared to one month ago, the capacity utilization rate
(CUR) decreased from 76.9% in November to 75.5% in De-
cember.

 Compared to one month ago, the monthly change in the
CPI was 0.58% in December, while the PPI increased by
1.00%. With the December data, the annual CPI and PPI
inflations registered as 10.45% (after 9.48% in November)
and 13.33% (after 13.67% in November) respectively.

 The rebalancing between the domestic and external de-
mand continues as envisaged and thereby, the improve-
ment in the current account balance is becoming more pro-
nounced.

 During the January-November period, the budget surplus
and the primary surplus registered as TL 0.4 bn and TL
41.4 bn respectively.

 In its December meeting, the Central Bank has decided to
keep the one-week repo auction rate (the policy rate) on
hold at 5.75% (the latest change in the policy rate was a 50
bps cut in August).

 Compared to one month ago, the consumer confidence in-
dex increased by 1.3 points from 89.7 in October to 91.0 in
November.

 Compared to one month ago, the real sector confidence
index decreased by 5.1 points to 97.2 in December



EU & US  Compared to the preceding quarter, in 3Q, GDP increased

0.2% in the euro area, 0.3% in the EU27, and 1.8% in the
US.

 Annual CPI inflation in November was 3.0% in the euro
area, 3.4% in the EU27, and 3.4% in the US.

 In its December meeting, the ECB decided to reduce its
main interest rate by 25 basis points from 1.25% to 1.00%,
with effect from December 14, 2011, while the Fed decided
to keep the target range for the federal funds rate un-
changed at 0-0.25%.

 In December, the consumer confidence index deteriorated
in both the EU27 and the euro area, while improving in the
US.
6
WHAT TO WATCH IN JANUARY


 Turkish Treasury will deliver domestic debt redemption of TL TURKEY
0.4 bn (January 4).

 Turkish Treasury will deliver domestic debt redemption of TL
0.8 bn (January 11).

 Turkish Treasury will hold auctions of TL denominated zero
coupon bond with the maturity of 14 months and TL denomi-
nated floating coupon bond (semi-annually couponed) with the
maturity of 6 years (re-opening) (January 17).

 Turkish Treasury will deliver domestic debt redemption of TL
4.0 bn (January 18).

 Turkish Treasury will hold auctions of TL denominated fixed
coupon bond (semi-annually couponed) with the maturity of 4
years (re-opening) and TL denominated CPI indexed bond
(semi-annually couponed) with the maturity of 10 years (re-
opening) (January 23).


 The Monetary Policy Committee Meeting will be held (January
24). The summary of that meeting will be published (January
31).

 Turkish Treasury will hold auctions of TL denominated fixed
coupon bond (semi-annually couponed) with the maturity of 2
years (re-opening) and TL denominated fixed coupon bond
(semi-annually couponed) with the maturity of 10 years
(January 24).

 Turkish Treasury will deliver domestic debt redemption of TL
12.6 bn (January 25).

 The Inflation Report will be published, which will be the first
issue of the year (January 31).



 The FOMC minutes for the December meeting will be pub-EU & US
lished in the US (January 3).

 The Beige Book will be published in the US (January 11).

 The third GDP estimate for 3Q will be posted in the EU
(January 11).

 The ECB will announce its interest rate decision (January 12).


 The FOMC meeting will begin (January 24). The Fed will an-
nounce its interest rate decision, followed by the Chairman’s
press conference (January 25).


 The GDP statistics for 4Q (advance estimates) will be posted
in the US (January 27).


 The BoJ meeting will begin (January 23). The BoJ will an-JAPAN
nounce its interest rate decision (January 24).


 German Chancellor Merkel will meet with French President
Sarkozy in Berlin to discuss the EU Fiscal Pact (January 9).


 The European Council will meet in Brussels (January 30).

7
RECAP OF TURKISH MACRO DATA
Gross Domestic Product
Economic activity displayed no sign of moderation in 3Q as the
Turkish economy grew by 8.2% y/y in 3Q 2011 (after the 12.0%
growth in 1Q and 8.8% growth in 2Q). According to the CNBC-e
survey, market players had estimated the 3Q GDP growth rate as
6.7%. As a result, the GDP growth rate during the 9-month period
of the year registered as 9.6%, compared to the 8.9% GDP
growth rate one year ago.

As of 3Q, Turkey manages to remain one of the world’s fastest Turkey:
growing economies, following Argentina (9.3% GDP growth rate),
Among the world’s fastest
China (9.1% GDP growth rate), and Estonia (8.5% GDP growth
growing economies rate).

The calendar-adjusted GDP increased by 7.7% y/y in 3Q (after
+12.1% in 1Q and +8.3% in 2Q), while the seasonal and calendar
-adjusted GDP rose by 1.7% q/q (after +1.9% in 1Q and +1.1% in
2Q).

For further details, please visit our Special Topics section.
15 GDP Growth (y/y,%)
GDP Growth, %
10 Calendar Adjusted GDP Growth, %
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
10 Seasonal and Calendar Adjusted GDP Growth (q/q,%)
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: TURKSTAT
8