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Adaptive reservoir operation strategies under changing boundary conditions [Elektronische Ressource] : the case of Aswan High Dam Reservoir / Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher

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ADAPTIVE RESERVOIR OPERATION STRATEGIES UNDER CHANGING BOUNDARY CONDITIONS THE CASE OF ASWAN HIGH DAM RESERVOIR Submitted to Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy M.Sc.-Ing. Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher Sharkiya,EgyptSupervisors: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Ostrowski Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter Rutschmann Date of Submission : 07 July 2010 Date of Examination: 10 November 2010 Darmstadt 2010 D17 DARMSTADT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND GEODESY ADAPTIVE RESERVOIR OPERATION STRATEGIES UNDER CHANGING BOUNDARY CONDITIONS THE CASE OF ASWAN HIGH DAM RESERVOIR By Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher M.Sc. in Civil Engineering A thesis Submitted to Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Supervised by Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Ostrowski Section of Engineering Hydrology and Water Management Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering Darmstadt University of Technology, Germany Prof. Dr.-Ing.

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Published 01 January 2010
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ADAPTIVE RESERVOIR OPERATION
STRATEGIES UNDER CHANGING BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS THE CASE OF ASWAN HIGH
DAM RESERVOIR
Submitted to Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy
For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
M.Sc.-Ing. Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher
Sharkiya,Egypt
Supervisors: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Ostrowski
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter Rutschmann
Date of Submission : 07 July 2010
Date of Examination: 10 November 2010
Darmstadt 2010
D17



DARMSTADT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND GEODESY
ADAPTIVE RESERVOIR OPERATION STRATEGIES
UNDER CHANGING BOUNDARY CONDITIONS THE
CASE OF ASWAN HIGH DAM RESERVOIR
By
Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher
M.Sc. in Civil Engineering
A thesis
Submitted to Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy
For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
Supervised by
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Ostrowski
Section of Engineering Hydrology and Water Management
Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering
Darmstadt University of Technology, Germany
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter Rutschmann
Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering
Institute of Water and Environment
Munich University of Technology, Germany
Darmstadt 2010
i







Technische Universitaet Darmstadt
Fachbereich Bauingenieurwesen und Geodaesie
Institut fuer Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft
Fachgebiet Ingenieurhydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung (ihwb)
ADAPTIVE TALSPERRENSTEUERUNG UNTER VERAENDERLICHEN RAND-
BEDINGUNGEN - DAS FALLBEISPIEL ASWANSTAUDAMM
Dem Fachbereich Bauingenieurwesen und Geodaesie der Technischen Universitaet Darmstadt
zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktor-Ingenieurs (Dr.-Ing.) vorgelegte Disserta-
tion von
M.Sc. Ing. / Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher
aus Sharkiya, Aegypten
Darmstadt 2010
Tag der Einreichung: 07 July 2010
Tag der muendlichen Pruefung: 10 November 2010
D17
ii


STATEMENT
This thesis is submitted to Darmstadt University of Technology for the degree of Doctor of Phi-
losophy in Civil Engineering.
No part of this thesis has been submitted for a degree or a qualification at any other University or
institution.
The work included in this thesis was carried out in Section of Engineering Hydrology and Water
Management - Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering - Department of Civil
Engineering and Geodesy - Darmstadt University of Technology- Germany, under supervision of
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Ostrowski and Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter Rutschmann.
M.Sc. Eng. / Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher
Sharkiya, Egypt
Darmstadt 2010
D17
iii







Erklaerung
Hiermit erklaere ich,
dass ich in der Vergangenheit weder an der Technischen Universitaet Darmstadt noch an
einer anderen Technischen Hochschule oder Universitaet an einer Promotion gearbeitet
oder Aehnliches versucht haben
dass ich keinerlei Einwaende gegen die Oeffentlichkeit der muendlichen Pruefung erhebe
dass meine Dissertation nur unter Einbeziehung der von mir genannten Hilfen von mir
selbstaendig verfasst und angefertigt wurde.
M.Sc. Ing. / Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher
aus Sharkiya, Aegypten
Darmstadt 2010
D17
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
It is deep-rooted in the Islamic traditions and conducts that the "one who does not express thanks
to people, cannot be grateful to Allah (The Lord)". Therefore, after praising and thanking Allah,
Glorified and Exalted is He, I would like to use this little space to express my gratitude to the
people without their support, this work would have not been realized.
First, I would like to thank Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Ostrowski, my research supervisor, for his
continuous technical support throughout my Ph.D. study. I appreciate the time and effort that he
has devoted to me. His sincere help and insightful assistance and guidance have been extremely
helpful to me. My sincere gratitude is also extended to my supervisor Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter
Rutschmann for his support, encouragement and advice throughout my research work.
A special thank goes to Prof. Dr. Matthias Becker, Institute of Physical Geodesy- TU Darm-
stadt, for his kind cooperation and providing reference materials and satellite altimetry data for
Aswan High Dam Reservoir.
To al1 my colleagues at Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Section of En-
gineering Hydrology and Water Management, I acknowledge your support and kind companion-
ship.
I wish to acknowledge Darmstadt University of Technology for providing me wonderful and all
needed research facilities.
I wish to acknowledge with gratitude and appreciation the Egyptian Cultural Bureau and Study
Mission in Berlin, Germany, for being supportive and helpful. Also I would like to extend my
sincere appreciation and gratitude to the Egyptian Government for the financial support.
Last but not the least, I am extremely grateful to my mother, brothers, and sister for their support
and prayers for me. My wife, and Zeyad, Mohamed and Reem, my children, have been always to
me like candles when it was so dark. The care of my wife and the smile of my children defeated
any feeling of depression.
M.Sc. Eng. / Amir Mohamed Akl Mobasher
Sharkiya, Egypt
Darmstadt 2010
D17
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ABSTRACT
ADAPTIVE RESERVOIR OPERATION STRATEGIES UNDER CHANGING BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS THE CASE OF ASWAN HIGH DAM RESERVOIR
During the lifetime of a reservoir its boundary conditions are continuously changing. Such
changes include global changes such as climate and economic change as well as national, re-
gional and local changes. National changes are often induced by modified political objectives,
regional changes might include supply and demand alterations, while local changes include modi-
fications directly linked to the reservoir infrastructure itself, e.g. reduced storage volume due to
sedimentation or dam enlargement or other technical modifications allowing or forcing modified
operation strategies and rules.
It must be the objective to be prepared for such changes by analysing the consequences of poten-
tial future changes, defined by a set a feasible scenarios (multiple futures). If the consequences of
development scenarios are analysed before the changes occur, immediate adequate reactions be-
come possible.
The assessment of sustainable future development includes multiple criteria chosen from the eco-
nomic, social and ecologic sectors. Adequate political, administrative and technical measures
have to be taken to foster sustainable development.
In this thesis BlueM, a model developed by the Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources En-
gineering, Section for Engineering Hydrology and Water Management of the Darmstadt Univer-
sity of Technology, Germany, will be used to analyse future development of water resources
yield and demand and related modifications of the infrastructure for the case of the Aswan high
dam reservoir. High emphasis will be given to the technical and economic aspects of the problem
without neglecting the importance and influence of the other sectors.
Analysis will be based on the assumption of regional and local change scenarios, their model
based analysis and the proposal of adequate reactions by identifying adaptive reservoir operation
strategies.
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