Decision making of rural farm households in Namibia [Elektronische Ressource] : lessons learned from multi-annual programming optimisation models / von Judith Hecht

Decision making of rural farm households in Namibia [Elektronische Ressource] : lessons learned from multi-annual programming optimisation models / von Judith Hecht

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Projekt1_Layout 1 21.09.2010 18:44 Seite 1Judith HechtDecision Making of Rural Farm Households in Namibia: Lessons Learned From Multi-AnnualProgramming Optimisation Models ISBN 978-3-86955-505-8 Cuvillier Verlag Göttingen9 783869 555058Internationaler wissenschaftlicher FachverlagJudith Hecht Decision Making of Rural Farm Households in NamibiaJustus-Liebig-Universität Giessen Fachbereich Agrarwissenschaften, Ökotrophologie und Umweltmanagement Institut für Agrarpolitik und Markforschung Professur für Agrarpolitik und Umweltpolitik Decision Making of Rural Farm Households in Namibia: Lessons Learned From Multi-Annual Programming Optimisation Models Dissertation von Judith Hecht Bibliografische Information der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar. 1. Aufl. Göttingen : Cuvillier, 2010Zugl.: Giessen, Diss., Univ. , 2010978-3-86955-505-8  CUVILLIER VERLAG, Göttingen 2010 Nonnenstieg 8, 37075 Göttingen Telefon: 0551-54724-0 Telefax: 0551-54724-21 www.cuvillier.de Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Ohne ausdrückliche Genehmigung des Verlages ist es nicht gestattet, das Buch oder Teile daraus auf fotomechanischem Weg (Fotokopie, Mikrokopie) zu vervielfältigen. 1.

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Projekt1_Layout 1 21.09.2010 18:44 Seite 1
Judith Hecht
Decision Making of Rural Farm
Households in Namibia:
Lessons Learned From Multi-Annual
Programming Optimisation Models
 
ISBN 978-3-86955-505-8

Cuvillier Verlag Göttingen
9 783869 555058
Internationaler wissenschaftlicher Fachverlag
Judith Hecht Decision Making of Rural Farm Households in NamibiaJustus-Liebig-Universität Giessen
Fachbereich Agrarwissenschaften, Ökotrophologie und Umweltmanagement
Institut für Agrarpolitik und Markforschung
Professur für Agrarpolitik und Umweltpolitik




Decision Making of Rural Farm Households in Namibia: Lessons
Learned From Multi-Annual Programming Optimisation Models







Dissertation
von
Judith Hecht



Bibliografische Information der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek
Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen
Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über
http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar.
1. Aufl. Göttingen : Cuvillier, 2010
Zugl.: Giessen, Diss., Univ. , 2010
978-3-86955-505-8




 CUVILLIER VERLAG, Göttingen 2010
Nonnenstieg 8, 37075 Göttingen

Telefon: 0551-54724-0
Telefax: 0551-54724-21
www.cuvillier.de

Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Ohne ausdrückliche Genehmigung
des Verlages ist es nicht gestattet, das Buch oder Teile
daraus auf fotomechanischem Weg (Fotokopie, Mikrokopie)
zu vervielfältigen.
1. Auflage, 2010
Gedruckt auf säurefreiem Papier

978-3-86955-505-8 Acknowledgements i
Acknowledgements
Foremost, I would like to express my sincere appreciation and gratitude to Prof. Nup-
penau for his scientific guidance, constructive criticism, and his encouragement. I would
like to thank him particularly for his valuable ideas and visions which will continue to
influence my scientific career. I would like to extend my gratitude to Prof. Schmitz who
made fruitful contributions at various stages of this thesis. I am as well thankful to the
BIOTA-Africa South Project for their financial support.
Several acquaintances, colleagues and friends were contributing their invaluable support
throughout the entire research process. I will bring out my gratitude to them according to
their affiliation to several locations and institutions.
First of all, my thanks go to all members of the BIOTA-Africa South Project team. Espe-
cially I would like to point-out Dr. Ingo Homburg, Dr. Ute Schmiedel, Bertchen Kohors,
Stephanie Domptail, Dr. Michael Pröpper, Bernadett Bock and Dr. Björn Vollan.
Throughout my several stays in Namibia I got in touch with different institutions and
their members. For enriching this thesis my appreciations go to all employees of the Min-
istry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry in Rundu and Windhoek, as well as to staff-
members of their out-sourced research stations in Masharey and Mile 46. A lot of the
empirical data collection was based on the support of various invaluable translators, field
assistants and authorities of the research villages as well as their community members. In
this context I would like to express my exceptional thank to Raffa, Robert, Selma, Karl,
the Hompa of the Kapako constituency, the village headwomen of Mutompo and Epigiro,
the headman of Cove and Donatus -thank you, for all enjoyable talks even without trans-
lation-. During my field work I could spend my weekends in Rundu at a camping lodge
with all necessary facilities which made my stay very pleasant -thank you Ursula for pro-
viding this place of relaxation and peace-. I remember how grateful I was to buy my first
fridge-cold soft-drink in Rundu after a tough week of interviews in the rural areas. For
several times I enjoyed such a drink at Smittis place -thank you for giving me this oppor-
tunity-.
Further, I would like to express my thanks to the scientific and technical staff of the
Justus-Liebig University in Giessen. Particularly, I would like to mention Dr. Hans-
Jürgen Buß and Ute Schneiderat. Both were helpful advisors for preparing my first field-
trip. ii Acknowledgements
Throughout the last quarter of writing this thesis I worked simultaneously in an EU re-
search project for which I was employed at the vTI in Braunschweig. All its staff mem-
bers contributed to varying degrees their honourable supports, thank you. In this context I
would like to show my deepest appreciation to the scientific and technical personnel of
the Institute of Farm Economics, the Institute of Market Analysis and the Institute of Ru-
ral Development. Especially I would like to mention Dr. Frank Offermann and Dr. Hil-
trud Nieberg -who never stopped asking me about the progress of my thesis-, Dr. Claus
Deblitz -an excellent e-mail advisor-, Kerstin Martens, Kati Böttger and Annerose Gillner
-the best word design performer-, Kubi -who could solve every computer problem-,
Klaus Nehring –a brilliant car-caretaker and work-husband-, Birthe Lassen –an excellent
cake-baker-, Markus Lutter –an admirable non-sense talker-, Markus Ehrmann -a highly
appreciated GAMS fellow-, Thomas De-Witte -an almost tennis star-, Dr. Aida Gonzalez
and Gitta Schnaut –with whom I spent the most enjoyable and honest evenings-, Andrea
Rothe, Steffi Wille, Heiko Hansen and all fellows of the ‘Kafferunde’-who provided a
regular location of amusements-.
I finished my thesis while working at the Research Institute for Organic Agriculture in
Frick, Switzerland. In this regard I would like to express my special thanks to the socio-
economic research group.
This study could not have been completed without empathies, understandings and pa-
tience of good friends. During my stay in Gießen I met two brilliant neighbours, thank
you Slavi and Petra for your supports. Additionally, my deep appreciations go to all
friends in Munich, Stuttgart, Braunschweig and Berlin. Specifically, I would like to
point-out Maren, Lisa, Kris, Sandra, Kirstin, Dirk, Cordula and Bert. For his scientific
discussions and his never ending moral support I would like to particularly thank Daniel
–thank you, for who you are-.
My last but for sure deepest gratitude I would like to express to my entire family which
supported and encouraged me my entire life and who made me forget at least for some
time my working tasks. Table of Contents iii
Table of Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Relevance and problem 1
1.2 Objective and organisation 2
2 Namibia and Its Kavango Region 5
2.1 Namibia 5
2.1.1 Location, land cover and distribution 5
2.1.2 Economy and agriculture 8
2.1.3 Socio-economic developments and future challenges 9
2.2 Kavango Region 11
2.2.1 Location 11
2.2.2 From Colonisation via Apartheid to Independence 12
2.2.3 Population, population growth and movements 13
2.2.4 Ethnics, political structure and land tenure 14
2.2.5 Infrastructure 16
2.2.6 Biophysical conditions and native vegetation 17
2.3 Livelihoods and farming systems 18
2.3.1 Resource endowments 20
2.3.2 Crop production 21
2.3.2.1 Field sizes and yield levels 22
2.3.2.2 Variable inputs 23
2.3.2.3 Domestic and commercial utilisation patterns 23
2.3.2.4 Labour 24
2.3.3 Livestock production 25
2.3.3.1 Cattle numbers 26
2.3.3.2 Cattle management and performance 27
2.3.3.3 Forage and grazing reserves 28
iv Table of Contents
2.3.3.4 Domestic and commercial utilisation patterns 29
2.3.3.5 Labour 30
2.3.4 Natural resource production and off-farm employment 30
2.3.4.1 Domestic and commercial utilisation patterns 31
2.3.4.2 Labour and off-farm employment 32
2.4 Major environmental and socio-economic threats 33
2.4.1 Environmental threats and driving forces 34
2.4.2 Socio-economic threats and impacts on farm households 35
2.4.3 Possible coping strategies 37
3 Theoretical Foundation and Modelling Approach 39
3.1 Farm household models 39
3.1.1 Chayanov’s model of farm households 41
3.1.2 Barnum and Squire’s model of farm households 43
3.1.3 Low’s model of farm households 46
3.1.4 Summary of farm household models 50
3.2 Bio-economic models 51
3.2.1 Definition 51
3.2.2 Disciplinary focus 52
3.2.3 Time scale 53
3.2.4 Spatial scale 55
3.2.5 Summary on bio-economic models 58
3.3 A combined modelling approach 59
3.3.1 Decision making and its units 60
3.3.2 Theoretical foundation and implicit assumptions 63
3.3.3 Qualitative model descriptions 68
3.3.3.1 A schematic overview 68
3.3.3.2 Objectives and decision variables 70
3.3.3.3 Farm household activities 71
Table of Contents v
3.3.3.4 Biophysical components 73
3.3.3.5 Constraints 74
4 Empirical Data Collection and Parameter Levels 77
4.1 Research sites and empirical data collection 78
4.1.1 Data collection 79
4.1.2 Data processing and evaluation 80
4.2 Resource endowments 81
4.2.1 Land 81
4.2.2 Labour 83
4.2.2.1 Family labour endowments and their developments 83
4.2.2.2 Hired external labour 85
4.2.3 Capital and other assets 86
4.3 Crop production 88
4.3.1 Identifying most prevailing and other possible management
options 89
4.3.1.1 Millet yields 91
4.3.1.2 Millet yield differentiation by cultivation modes
and rainfall 93
4.3.1.3 Millet yield differentiation by soil quality classes 93
4.3.1.4 Millet yield difby weeding frequencies 95
4.3.1.5 Resulting millet yields of different management options 95
4.3.2 Variable inputs and prices 97
4.3.3 Domestic utilisation patterns and nutrition deliveries 98
4.4 Livestock production 99
4.4.1 Identifying most prevailing and other possible
management options 99
4.4.1.1 Cattle performance indicators 100
4.4.1.2 Cattle numbers 102
vi Table of Contents
4.4.2 Forage supplies and demands 103
4.4.2.1 Estimating biomass production on grazing areas 104
4.4.2.2 Estimating dry matter intake 106
4.4.3 Variable inputs and prices 107
4.4.4 Domestic utilisation patterns and nutrition deliveries 108
4.5 Natural resource production and off-farm employment 109
4.5.1 Estimating biomass production on natural resource areas 110
4.5.2 Domestic utilisation patterns 111
4.5.2.1 Thatching grass 112
4.5.2.2 Firewood and timber 113
4.5.3 Off-farm employment 114
4.6 Family labour requirements 116
4.6.1 Crop production 116
4.6.1.1 Literature review on labour inputs 117
4.6.1.2 Empirical evidence on labour inputs 118
4.6.1.3 Incorporating two weeding sessions and
different cultivation modes 120
4.6.1.4 Incorporating gender differentiation 122
4.6.2 Livestock production 123
4.6.3 Natural resource production and off-farm employment 124
4.6.4 Daily maintenance 126
4.7 Objectives of peasant farm households 127
4.7.1 Theoretical foundation of traditional conjoint analysis (TCA) 128
4.7.1.1 General approach 128
4.7.1.2 Identifying factors and factor levels 130
4.7.1.3 Developing a census design 131
4.7.1.4 Evaluating stimuli 131
4.7.1.5 Estimating and aggregating utility levels 132
Table of Contents vii
4.7.1.6 Suitability, limitations and further developments 133
4.7.1.7 Application to developing countries 135
4.7.2 Empirically identifying objectives of peasant farm households 136
4.7.2.1 Identifying factors and factor levels 136
4.7.2.2 Developing a census design 137
4.7.2.3 Evaluating stimuli 139
4.7.2.4 Objectives of pesant farm households 139
5 Mathematical Model Formulations 143
5.1 Technical modelling aspects and rules 144
5.2 Resource endowments and assets 147
5.3 Crop production 151
5.3.1 Production patterns 152
5.3.2 Utilisation patterns and nutrition deliveries 153
5.4 Livestock production 156
5.4.1 Production patterns 157
5.4.2 Forage supplies and demands 159
5.4.3 Utilisation patterns and nutrition deliveries 160
5.5 Natural resource production and off-farm employment 161
5.5.1 Production patterns 162
5.5.2 Utilisation patterns 163
5.5.3 Off-farm employment 165
5.6 Labour requirements 166
5.7 Objective function 169
6 Scenarios and Discussion 175
6.1 Baseline scenario 175
6.1.1 Resource endowments 175
6.1.2 Crop production 178
6.1.3 Livestock production 182