Employment protection and job insecurity [Elektronische Ressource] / vorgelegt von Clemens Noelke
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Employment protection and job insecurity [Elektronische Ressource] / vorgelegt von Clemens Noelke

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EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION AND JOB INSECURITY Inaugural-Dissertation zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Sozialwissenschaften der Universität Mannheim Betreuer: Prof. Dr. Dres. h.c. Walter Müller vorgelegt von Clemens Noelke Dekan: Prof. Dr. Berthold Rittberger Gutachter/Betreuer: Prof. Dr. Dres. h.c. Walter Müller Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Markus Gangl Datum der Disputation: 30. September 2010 Acknowledgements As graduate student at the University of Mannheim and an undergraduate at International University Bremen (now Jacobs University Bremen), I have received support and encouragement from many people. I especially want to thank my supervisors at University of Mannheim, Markus Gangl and Walter Müller, for inspiration and advice. I am also thankful to my professors and teachers at Mannheim University, Johannes Berger, Josef Brüderl and Hartmut Esser. For initial encouragement and support, I am grateful to Paul Nolte, my academic advisor at International University Bremen, as well as Hartmut Wessler. The Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung (MZES) has provided me with a wonderful scientific home base, excellent infrastructure and support.

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Published 01 January 2010
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EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION
AND JOB INSECURITY








Inaugural-Dissertation

zur

Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Sozialwissenschaften

der

Universität Mannheim






Betreuer: Prof. Dr. Dres. h.c. Walter Müller







vorgelegt von

Clemens Noelke


Dekan: Prof. Dr. Berthold Rittberger

Gutachter/Betreuer: Prof. Dr. Dres. h.c. Walter Müller

Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Markus Gangl

Datum der Disputation: 30. September 2010


Acknowledgements
As graduate student at the University of Mannheim and an undergraduate at International
University Bremen (now Jacobs University Bremen), I have received support and encouragement
from many people. I especially want to thank my supervisors at University of Mannheim, Markus
Gangl and Walter Müller, for inspiration and advice. I am also thankful to my professors and
teachers at Mannheim University, Johannes Berger, Josef Brüderl and Hartmut Esser. For initial
encouragement and support, I am grateful to Paul Nolte, my academic advisor at International
University Bremen, as well as Hartmut Wessler.
The Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung (MZES) has provided me with a
wonderful scientific home base, excellent infrastructure and support. While working on this
dissertation, I have been employed at the project “Education systems and labour markets in
Central and Eastern Europe”, directed by Irena Kogan and Walter Müller and financed by the
Volkswagen Foundation, whose financial support I gratefully acknowledge. Julie Gast, Stefanie
Heyne, Philipp Kercksieck and Frederic Turri provided great research assistance. At the MZES, I
i
could also participate in the EQUALSOC research network, which was an excellent opportunity
for meeting, learning from and working with excellent scientist from across Europe.
I am very grateful to my colleagues and co-authors at the MZES, in particular David Reimer
for providing crucial support as well as Daniel Horn. I am especially indebted to two individuals,
who have been central to my time in Mannheim and at the MZES: Michael Gebel and Irena
Kogan have been a source of learning, advice, and encouragement; I am thankful for many
stimulating discussions, patience and very fruitful collaboration.
A lot of the following work has been completed while I was a visiting scholar at the
Department of Sociology at Harvard University. I am grateful to the Department for its
hospitality, and especially Jason Beckfield, for inviting me and providing me with support in the
final stages of this dissertation.
Finally, my deepest gratitude goes to my parents, my sisters, and my wife Iva.

ii

Contents
Acknowledgements i
List of Tables iv
List of Figures vii
Country Acronyms ix
Abbreviations x
1. Introduction and Overview 1
2. The Changing Labor Market 8
3. Employment Protection and Job Insecurity 42
4. Data and Methods 72
5. Employment Protection and Youth Unemployment 112
6. Employment Protection and Temporary Employment 153
7. Revising the Consensus 175
References 192

iii

List of Tables
2.1 Temporary employment by age and gender, 2006 26
2.2 Unemployment rates by age and gender, 2008 40
2.3 Characteristics of atypical jobs, young people aged 15-29 41
3.1 Fixed effects regression estimates of the determinants of employment
protection legislation 52
4.1 Data coverage OECD and EULFS 107
5.1 OLS regression estimates of the association between employment protection
legislation and relative youth (ages 15-29) unemployment rates, 21 OECD
countries, 1985-2007 117
5.2 OLS regression estimates of the association between employment protection
legislation and relative youth (ages 15-29) unemployment, employment and
labor force participation rates, 21 OECD countries, 1985-2007 118
5.3 OLS regression estimates of the association between employment protection
legislation and youth and adult men's unemployment rates, 21 OECD countries,
1985-2007 119
5.4 OLS regression estimates of the association between employment protection
legislation and relative youth (ages 15-29) unemployment, employment and
labor force participation rates, 16 Western European countries, 1985-2007 120
5.5 OLS regression estimates of the association between employment protection
and relative youth unemployment rates by education levels, 15 Western
European countries and the U.S., 1992-2006 121
5.6 Replication of Breen (2005) 124
iv
5.7 Bivariate associations between old and new data on relative unemployment
rates and dismissal regulations on regular contracts 126
5.8 Fixed effects regression estimates of the association between employment
protection legislation and relative youth (ages 15-29) unemployment rates, 21
OECD countries, 1985-2007 129
5.9 Fixed effects regression estimates of the association between employment
protection legislation and relative youth (ages 15-29) unemployment
employment and labor force participation rates, 21 OECD countries, 1985-2007 130
5.10 Fixed effects regression estimates of the association between employment
protection legislation and youth and adult men's unemployment rates, 21 OECD
countries, 1985-2007 131
5.11 Comparison of OLS fixed effects and GLS fixed effects (standard errors
adjusted for panel-specific, first-order autocorrelation), 21 OECD countries,
1985-2007 135
5.12 Differences-in-differences (DiD) estimates of the effect of reforms of
employment protection on youth unemployment, employment and labor force
participation rates, 16 Western countries, 1992-2006 137
5.13 DiD estimates of the effect of reforms of job security provisions on regular
contracts on youth labor force participation, 16 Western countries, 1992-2006,
specification checks 138
5.14 Fixed effects regression estimates of the association between (log) enrolment
rates in tertiary education institutions and employment protection, 15 Western
Countries, 1998-2007 140
5.15 DiD estimates of the effect of reforms of job security provisions on regular
contracts on youth unemployment, employment and labor force participation
rates, 16 Western countries, 1992-2006, heterogeneous reform effects 142
5.16 DiD estimates of the effect of reforms of regulations on the usage of temporary
contracts on youth unemployment, employment and labor force participation
rates, 16 Western countries, 1992-2006, heterogeneous reform effects 143
5.17 DiD estimates of the effect of reforms of regulations on the usage of temporary
contracts on youth unemployment, employment and labor force participation
rates, 16 Western countries, 1992-2006, consequence of "partial deregulation” 144
5.18 DiD estimates of the effect of reforms of employment protection on adult men's
(ages 45-54) unemployment, employment and labor force participation rates, 16
Western countries, 1992-2006 145
5.19 DiD estimates of the effect of reforms of regulations on the usage of temporary
contracts on adult men's (ages 45-54) unemployment, employment and labor
force participation rates, 16 Western countries, 1992-2006, heterogeneous
reform effects 146
v
5.20 OLS regression estimates of the association between employment protection
legislation and relative youth unemployment rates, different gender and age-
groups 150
5.21 Regression estimates of the association between employment protection,
relative youth (ages 15-29) unemployment rates, absolute youth unemployment
rates and adult men's (ages 45-54) unemployment rate, 21 OECD countries,
1985-2007 151
5.22 Discrepancies between previous and most recent OECD data releases on youth
unemployment and dismissal regulations on regular contracts for the period
1995-1999 152
6.1 OLS regression estimates of the association between employment protection
and temporary employment, young people aged 15-24, 20 OECD countries,
1985-2007 158
6.2 OLS regression estimates of the association between employment protection
and temporary employment, young people aged 15-29, 15 Western European
countries, 1992-2006 158
6.3 OLS regression estimates of the association between employment protection
and temporary employment, young people aged 15-29, 15 Western European
countries, 1996-2006 160
6.4 OLS fixed effects regression estimates of the association between employment
protection and temporary employment, EULFS data and OECD data 163
6.5 OLS regression estimates of the association between employment protection
and temporary employment, young people aged 15-29, 15 Western European
countries, 1996-2006 165
6.6 DiD estimates of the effect of reforms of employment protection on temporary
employment among young people, 15 Western countries, 1992-2006 168
6.7 DiD estimates of the effect of reforms of job security provisions on regular
contracts on temporary employment among young people, 15 Western
countries, 1992-2006, heterogeneous reform effects 170
6.8 DiD estimates of the effect of reforms of regulations on the usage of temporary
contracts on temporary employment among young people, 15 Western
countries, 1992-2006, heterogeneous reform effects 171
6.9 DiD estimates of the effect of reforms of regulations on the usage of temporary
contracts on temporary employment among young people, 15 Western
countries, 1992-2006, consequences of "partial deregulation” 172
6.10 OLS regression estimates of the association between employment protection
and temporary employment, young people aged 15-29, 15 Western European
countries, 1992-2006 174
vi

List of Figures
2.1 Unemployment 1970-2008, by age and gender 20
2.2 Long-term unemployment 1985-2008, by age and gender 23
2.3 Temporary employment, by age and gender 25
2.4 Unemployment and temporary employment, young people aged 15-29 29
2.5 Job insecurity, young people aged 15-29 and adult men aged 45-54 30
2.6 Precarity, job security and labor force participation rates, young people aged
15-29 31
2.7 Relative precarity, relative job security and relative labor force participation
rates, young people aged 15-29 32
2.8 Absolute and relative trends in precarity, job security and labor force
participation rates, young people aged 15-29 33
2.9 Unemployment January 1992 to May 2010, by age 35
2.10 Unemployment January 1992 to March 2010, Western countries, by age 36
3.1 Employment protection regimes in Western countries, 1992-2006 49
3.2 Median tenure and long-term unemployment on the youth labor market 56
3.3 Age-unemployment profiles, United Kingdom and Portugal, 1986-2006 57
3.4 Age-temporary-employment profiles, United Kingdom and Portugal, 2003-
2006 67
4.1 Causal Diagram 88
vii
4.2 The effect of using different conditioning strategies, youth unemployment 103
5.1 Employment protection and relative youth (ages 15-29) unemployment rates,
21 OECD countries, 1985-2007 116
5.2 Employment protection and relative youth (ages 15-29) unemployment rates,
21 OECD countries, 1985-2007, country-demeaned data 128
6.1 Employment protection and temporary employment among 15-29 year old men
and women 157
6.2 Employment protection and temporary employment among 15-29 year old men
and women, country-demeaned data 162
6.3 The effect of using different conditioning strategies, youth temporary
employment 167

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