Fertility of immigrants and their descendants in West Germany  [Elektronische Ressource] : an event-history approach / vorgelegt von Nadja Milewski

Fertility of immigrants and their descendants in West Germany [Elektronische Ressource] : an event-history approach / vorgelegt von Nadja Milewski

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Fertility of Immigrants and Their Descendants in West Germany — An Event-history Approach Dissertation zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades doctor rerum politicarum (Dr. rer. pol.) der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Rostock vorgelegt von Nadja Milewski, geb. am 11. Juni 1972 in Mittweida,aus Paris Rostock, am 6. Juni 2008 urn:nbn:de:gbv:28-diss2009-0014-3Gutachter: Prof. em. Dr. Jan M. Hoem, Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung Rostock, Universität Rostock PD Dr. Hill Kulu, University of Liverpool JP Dr. Michaela Kreyenfeld, Universität Rostock Verteidigung: am 17. Dezember 2008 an der Universität Rostock 1To my father, Manfred Milewski, a migrant himself Acknowledgement I am very much indebted to the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock. This doctoral project has been conducted within the Laboratory of Contemporary European Fertility and Family Dynamics under the great supervision of Prof. Jan M. Hoem. I appreciate the constructive and friendly working environment, the assistance I received from the members of the Research Support as well as I benefited from discussion with the participants of several courses at the International Max Planck Research School for Demography. In particular, I thank Dr. Hill Kulu for excellent mentoring.

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Fertility of Immigrants and Their Descendants
in West Germany — An Event-history Approach
Dissertation
zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades
doctor rerum politicarum (Dr. rer. pol.)
der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakultät
der Universität Rostock
vorgelegt von
Nadja Milewski, geb. am 11. Juni 1972 in Mittweida,
aus Paris
Rostock, am 6. Juni 2008
urn:nbn:de:gbv:28-diss2009-0014-3Gutachter:
Prof. em. Dr. Jan M. Hoem, Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung Rostock,
Universität Rostock
PD Dr. Hill Kulu, University of Liverpool
JP Dr. Michaela Kreyenfeld, Universität Rostock
Verteidigung: am 17. Dezember 2008 an der Universität Rostock
1To my father, Manfred Milewski, a migrant himself
Acknowledgement
I am very much indebted to the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research,
Rostock. This doctoral project has been conducted within the Laboratory of
Contemporary European Fertility and Family Dynamics under the great supervision of
Prof. Jan M. Hoem. I appreciate the constructive and friendly working environment, the
assistance I received from the members of the Research Support as well as I benefited
from discussion with the participants of several courses at the International Max Planck
Research School for Demography. In particular, I thank Dr. Hill Kulu for excellent
mentoring.
I am also grateful to my colleagues at the Institut national d’études démographiques,
Paris, who ensured that I could finish the work on my thesis although I had already
started working in a new project there.
Moreover, I thank Miriam Hils-Cosgrove for valuable language editing of the paper. —
Being a doctoral student has been a great and learning-intensive phase in my life,
though certainly not one of the easiest. I am thankful to many persons who shared the
happy moments with me and offered advice and encouragement in times of difficulties.
My special thanks to: Gisela Milewski, my mother; David Alich, Renee Flibotte-
Lüskow, Esther Geisler, Anna Grotebrune, Petra Hörmann, Veronica M. Kaplan,
Sylvia Keim, Ana Raquel Monteiro Matias, Monika Mynarska, Dr. Rainer Walke,
Peter Wilhelm, and Dr. Cordula Zabel.
2. Content
Content
List of tables..................................................................................................................5
List of figures ................................................................................................................8
1 Introduction.............................................................................................................9
1.1 Germany’s immigration history after 1945.....................................................11
1.1.1 Expellees (Vertriebene) and in-migrating ethnic Germans (Aussiedler) .......12
1.1.2 ‘Guest workers’ (Gastarbeiter) in West Germany.........................................14
1.1.3 Foreign workers (Vertragsarbeiter) in the former GDR ...............................17
1.1.4 Refugees and asylum seekers.........................................................................19
1.1.5 Summary: Immigrants and their descendants in Germany ............................20
1.2 Introduction to fertility of immigrants in Germany ........................................24
1.3 Research questions and structure of the thesis................................................28
2 Theory and Empirical Findings in Previous Investigations................................32
2.1 Migration and fertility.....................................................................................32
2.1.1 Disruption.......................................................................................................34
2.1.2 Interrelation of events ....................................................................................36
2.1.3 Adaptation......................................................................................................37
2.1.4 Socialization...................................................................................................42
2.1.5 Selection and characteristics ..........................................................................45
2.1.6 Legitimacy49
2.1.7 Minority groups..............................................................................................50
2.1.8 Socio-demographic characteristics and economic arguments........................51
2.1.9 Independence-effect: Sub-culture and minority status...................................52
2.1.10 Synthesis: Theories ......................................................................................57
2.2 Family-formation context in the countries of origin.......................................61
2.2.1 Italy and Spain................................................................................................62
2.2.2 Turkey ............................................................................................................64
2.2.3 Former Yugoslavia.........................................................................................68
2.3.4 Greece70
2.3.5 Intermediate conclusion .................................................................................71
2.3 Socio-demographic characteristics of ‘guest workers’ and their
descendants in Germany72
2.3.1 Legal status.....................................................................................................72
2.3.2 Education........................................................................................................74
2.3.3 Occupation .....................................................................................................76
2.3.4 Religious affiliation........................................................................................80
2.3.5 Social interaction and marriage behavior.......................................................81
2.4 Research summary: Fertility of ‘guest workers’ in Germany.........................84
2.4.1 Period, age, and time effects ..........................................................................85
2.4.2 Individual factors influencing fertility ...........................................................88
2.4.3 Contextual and cultural factors ......................................................................91
2.4.4 Reflections in the light of theory....................................................................94
2.5 Research approach and working hypotheses...................................................99
2.5.1 The life-course approach................................................................................99
2.5.2 Hypotheses, Part 1 — entry into motherhood..............................................102
2.5.3 Hyes, Part II — transitions to a second and a third child ..................107
3. Content
3 Empirical Analysis ..............................................................................................110
3.1 Data, method, and explanatory variables ......................................................110
3.1.1 Data ..............................................................................................................110
3.1.2 Method .........................................................................................................114
3.1.3 Explanatory variables...................................................................................116
3.2 Introductory description of the sample .........................................................128
3.2.1 Marriage .......................................................................................................128
3.2.2 Completed family size .................................................................................130
3.3 Results: Transition to a first child .................................................................135
3.3.1 Kaplan-Meier survival estimates..................................................................135
3.3.2 Immigrant generation and baseline intensity (age of the woman) ...............139
3.3.3 Stay duration of first-generation immigrants ...............................................140
3.3.4 Marriage duration.........................................................................................143
3.3.5 Women’s characteristics ..............................................................................143
3.3.6 Partner’s characteristics ...............................................................................146
3.3.7 Immigration background148
3.3.8 Further covariates150
3.3.9 Intermediate conclusion150
3.4 Results: Transition to a second child ............................................................152
3.4.1 Kaplan-Meier survival estimates..................................................................152
3.4.2 Immigrant generation and baseline intensity (age of the first child) ...........155
3.4.3 Stay duration of first-generation immigrants ...............................................156
3.4.4 Women’s characteristics ..............................................................................158
3.4.5 Partner’s characteristics ...............................................................................160
3.4.6 Immigration background161
3.4.7 Further covariates.........................................................................................162
3.4.8 Intermediate conclusion163
3.5 Results: Transition to a third child................................................................164
3.5.1 Kaplan-Meier survival estimates..................................................................164
3.5.2 Immigrant generation and baseline intensity (age of the second child).......167
3.5.3 Stay duration of first-generation immigrants ...............................................169
3.5.4 Women’s characteristics ..............................................................................169
3.5.5 Partner’s educational attainment..................................................................171
3.5.6 Immigration background172
3.5.7 Further covariates.........................................................................................173
3.5.8 Intermediate conclusion ...............................................................................174
4 Discussion.............................................................................................................175
4.1 Conclusions for hypotheses...........................................................................175
4.2 Reflections and perspectives.........................................................................185
5 Summary..............................................................................................................190
6 References............................................................................................................195
7 Appendix.217
7.1 First-child analysis ........................................................................................217
7.2 Second-child analysis....................................................................................223
7.3 Third-child analysis.......................................................................................228
Eidesstattliche Erklärung ..........................................................................................232
4. Content
List of tables
Table 1: Regional distribution of foreigners by Federal State, 2005 ..............................20
Table 2: Employment rates of German and foreign persons by sex, age, and marital
status, 1997 .......................................................................................................22
Table 3: Received or aspired school-leaving certificates of immgrants .........................76
Table 4: Educational degrees of persons employed in Germany with social security
by sex and nationality, 1980 and 1996 .............................................................78
Table 5: Labor-market status by sex and nationality, Germany 1980 and 1996 ...........78
Table 6: Unemployment rates of foreigners in Germany by country of origin .............80
Table 7: Total fertility rate in selected countries of origin and in Germany...................85
Table 8: Unadjusted age-specific fertility rates for ‘guest-worker’ groups and West
Germans, 1980 .................................................................................................87
Table 9: Overview of the sub-samples..........................................................................112
Table 10: Sample statistics: Transition to a first child .................................................120
Table 11: Sample statistics: Transition to a second child ............................................123
Table 12: Sample statistics: Transition to a third child ................................................125
Table 13: Share of women unmarried at censoring, per country of origin ..................129
Table 14: Share of censoring, in respective birth cohort ...........129
Table 15: Mean age at first marriage, in respective birth cohort .................................129
Table 16: Mean age at firsge, per country of origin ........................................130
Table 17: Completed number of children ....................................................................131
Table 18: Completed number of children at age 35, per country of origin ..................132
Table 19: Mean age at first, second, and third conception, per country of origin .......133
Table 20: Mean age at first, second, and third conception, per birth cohort.................134
Table 21: Share of childlessness and median age at first-time motherhood by
immigrant generation and country of origin .................................................137
Table 22: Factors influencing the transition to a first child: Immigrant generation
and stay duration ...........................................................................................140
Table 23: Factors influencing the transition to a first child: Stay duration and
marriage duration ..........................................................................................141
Table 24: Factors influencing the transition to a first child:
Women’s characteristics ...............................................................................145
Table 25: Factors influencing the transition to a first child:
Spouse’s characteristics ................................................................................146
Table 26: Migrant-specific factors influencing the transition to a first child ...............149
Table 27: Share of one-child mothers and median age at second conception ..............154
Table 28: Factors influencing the transition to a second child:
Immigrant generation and timing of first birth and move.............................157
Table 29: Facing the tr
Women’s characteristics ...............................................................................159
Table 30: Factors influencing the transition to a second child:
Characteristics of the women and the spouse ..............................................160
Table 31: Facing the trristics of immigration background .................................................162
Table 32: Share of two-child mothers and median age of second child
at third conception.........................................................................................166
5. Content
Table 33: Factors influencing the transition to a third child: Immigrant generation
and timing of previous births and move .......................................................168
Table 34: Factors influencing the transition to a third child:
Women’s characteristics ..............................................................................170
Table 35: Factors influencing the transition to a third child:
Spouse’s educational attainment ..................................................................172
Table 36: Factors influencing the transition to a third child:
Characteristics of immigration background .................................................173
Table 37: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and birth cohort...................217
Table 38: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and school-leaving
certificate.......................................................................................................218
Table 39: First immigrant generation: Relative frequencies by birth cohort and
school-leaving certificate ..............................................................................218
Table 40: Second immigrant generation: Relative frequencies by birth cohort and g certificate218
Table 41: West Germans: Relative frequencies by birth cohort and school-leaving
certificate...218
Table 42: Married women: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and
spouse’s school leaving certificate................................................................219
Table 43: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and type of place
where woman lived at age 15........................................................................219
Table 44: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and religious affiliation.......219
Table 45: Relative frequencies by country of origin and religious affiliation ..............219
Table 46: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and importance of religion..220
Table 47: Relative frequencies by country of origin and importance of religion .........220
Table 48: Immigrant-specific factors influencing the transition to a first child ..........221
Table 49: Further factors influencing the transition to a first child .............................222
Table 50: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and birth cohort...................223
Table 51: First immigrant generation: Relative frequencies by birth cohort................223
Table 52: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and age at first birth............224
Table 53: Relative frequencies by country of origin and age ...................224
Table 54: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and school-leaving
certificate.......................................................................................................224
Table 55: First immigrant generation: Relative frequencies by school-leaving ate...224
Table 56: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and spouse’s
school-leaving certificate ..............................................................................225
Table 57: First immigrant generation: Relative frequencies by spouse’s g certificate at censoring..........................................................225
Table 58: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and type of place
where woman lived at age 15........................................................................225
Table 59: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and religious affiliation.......225
Table 60: Relative frequencies by country of origin and religious affiliation ..............226
Table 61: Factors influencing the transition to a second child:
Characteristics of immigration background .................................................226
Table 62: Further factors influencing the transition to a second child: ristics of immigration background and further covariates .............227
Table 63: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and birth cohort...................228
6. Content
Table 64: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and age at second birth .......228
Table 65: Relative frequencies by country of origin and age at second birth...............229
Table 66: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and school-leaving
certificate.......................................................................................................229
Table 67: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and spouse’s
school-leaving certificate ..............................................................................229
Table 68: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and type of place
where woman lived at age 15........................................................................229
Table 69: Relative frequencies by immigrant generation and religious affiliation.......230
Table 70: Relative frequencies by country of origin and religious affiliation ..............230
Table 71: Factors influencing the transition to a third child:
Characteristics of immigration background and further covariates .............231
7. Content
List of figures
Figure 1: Number of births in Germany, 1960–1997......................................................25
Figure 2: Transition to a first child, first-generation immigrants .................................136
Figure 3: Transition to a first child, second-generation immigrants and
West Germans ...............................................................................................136
Figure 4: Transition to a first child of first-generation immigrants
by country of origin.......................................................................................138
Figure 5: Transition to a first child of second-generation immigrants
by country of origin138
Figure 6: Transition to a first child — baseline intensity..............................................139
Figure 7: Transition to a first child by time since arrival, relative risks —
Models 1.2 and 1.3........................................................................................142
Figure 8: Transition to a first child by time since arrival, relative risks —
Models 1.2, 1.3, and 1.5................................................................................147
Figure 9: Transition to a second child, first- and second-generation immigrants and
West Germans ...............................................................................................153
Figure 10: Transition to a second child of first-generation immigrants
by country of origin.....................................................................................154
Figure 11: Tr of second-generation immigrants y country of origin155
Figure 12: Transition to a second child — baseline intensity.......................................156
Figure 13: Transition to a third child, first- and second-generation immigrants
and West Germans .165
Figure 14: Transition to a third child of first-generation immigrants
by country of origin.....................................................................................166
Figure 15: Transition to a third child of second-generation immigrants y country of origin167
Figure 16: Transition to a third child — baseline intensity ..........................................168
Figure 17: Transition to a first child — log baseline intensity .....................................217
Figure 18: Transition to a second child — log basey.................................223
Figure 19: Transition to a third child — log baseline intensity ....................................228
8. 1 Introduction
1 Introduction
1.1 Germany’s immigration history after 1945 — 1.2 Introduction to fertility of
immigrants in Germany — 1.3 Research questions and structure of the thesis
Since the middle of the 20th century, Western Europe has been faced with growing
migration flows. Social research has focused on the first generation of international
migrants, the interplay between international migration and the family dynamics of
migrants, however, has not been fully understood.
International migration is associated with a rapid change in the migrants’
environment. This change usually takes place within a much shorter time span than
societies alter as a whole. Immigrants have to cope with these changes. Therefore, the
study of the demographic behavior of migrants enables us to gain insights into the
patterns and speed of the demographic responses of individuals or groups to sudden
environmental alterations to which they are exposed (Coleman 1994). The life-course
approach (e.g., Mulder 1993, Mulder and Wagner 1993) allows us to analyze the
sequencing of several events, and therefore to study the short-term as well as the long-
term effects of migration on a person’s life. Studies show, for example, that
international migration often coincides with downward social mobility for the migrants
in terms of occupation, income, housing conditions, etc. (Constant and Massey 2005).
Internal or international migration and partner selection are frequently interrelated
processes (Mulder 1993, Milewski 2003, Straßburger 2003, Kulu 2006), and
international migration and repeated moves have an impact on the subsequent stability
of a union (Roloff 1998, Boyle et al. 2008).
When it comes to fertility, the impact of migration is discussed based on
competing hypotheses that aim to address the following questions: Does the act of
migration, and its related cultural and socio-economic consequences, have a depressing
or a stimulating effect on childbearing behavior? Do migrants continue to display the
behavior of their old environment, or adopt behavior typical of the new environment?
And what are the mechanisms behind the respective behaviors?
9