Outline Solutions to Tutorial Sheet 1

Outline Solutions to Tutorial Sheet 1

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Outline Solutions to Tutorial Sheet 31. Not true! The vast majority of people have both eyes the same colour so if the left eye isbrown the right eye will almost certainly also be brown. So the probability that both eyes arebrown is also about 0.6.More formally, the events are not independent soP(left eye brown and right eye brown) ≈P(left eye brown)×P(right eye brown given left eye brown) = 0.6×1 = 0.62. From the tree diagram:JointProbabilityP( MachineA ∩ Defective ) = 0.45×0.08 = 0.036P( ∩ NotDefective ) = 0.414×0.92P( MachineB ∩ Defective) = 0.055= 0.55×0.10P( ∩ NotDefective ) = 0.495×0.90TOTAL = 1.000Prob(item from Machine A given it’s defective)P(A ∩ Defective) 0.036= P(A | Defective) = = = 0.396P() 0.036 + 0.0553. Let X be the number of defective bulbs found.6 5 4 120(i) P(X = 0) = × × = = 0.2389 8 7 5043 6 5 6 3 5 6 5 3 (ii) P(X = 1) = × × + × × + × × = 3× 0.1786 = 0.536 9 8 7 9 8 7 9 8 7 (iii) P(X ≥ 1) = 1− P(X = 0) = 1− 0.238 = 0.7624. It helps to draw a tree diagram first. Then:P(D ∩ +) 0.05× 0.95P(Has disorder | + result) = =P(+)()0.05× 0.95 +(0.95× 0.10)0.0475= = 0.3330.1425P(NotD ∩ −) 0.95× 0.90P(No disorder | – result) = =P(−) ()0.05× 0.05 +(0.95× 0.90)0.855= = 0.9970.8575If you have a negative result, you are almost certainly free of the disorder.If you have a positive result, you are still probably disorder free though your chances of havingit are increased. Without the test ...

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Outline Solutions to Tutorial Sheet 3
1.
Not true! The vast majority of people have both eyes the same colour so if the left eye is
brown the right eye will almost certainly also be brown. So the probability that both eyes are
brown is also about 0.6.
More formally, the events are
not independent
so
P(left eye brown
and
right eye brown)
P(left eye brown)
×
P(right eye brown
given
left eye brown) = 0.6
×
1 = 0.6
2.
From the tree diagram:
Joint
Probability
P(
Defective
MachineA
)
=
0.45
×
0.08
=
0.036
P(
ve
NotDefecti
MachineA
)
=
0.45
×
0.92
=
0.414
P(
Defective
MachineB
)
=
0.55
×
0.10
=
0.055
P(
ve
NotDefecti
MachineB
)
=
0.55
×
0.90
=
0.495
TOTAL
=
1.000
Prob(item from Machine A
given
it’s defective)
396
.
0
055
.
0
036
.
0
036
.
0
)
(
)
(
)
|
(
=
+
=
=
=
Defective
P
Defective
A
P
Defective
A
P
3.
Let
X
be the number of defective bulbs found.
(i)
238
.
0
504
120
7
4
8
5
9
6
)
0
(
=
=
×
×
=
=
X
P
(ii)
536
.
0
1786
.
0
3
7
3
8
5
9
6
7
5
8
3
9
6
7
5
8
6
9
3
)
1
(
=
×
=
÷
ø
ö
ç
è
æ
×
×
+
÷
ø
ö
ç
è
æ
×
×
+
÷
ø
ö
ç
è
æ
×
×
=
=
X
P
(iii)
762
.
0
238
.
0
1
)
0
(
1
)
1
(
=
=
=
=
X
P
X
P
4.
It helps to draw a tree diagram first. Then:
P(Has disorder | + result)
(
)
(
)
10
.
0
95
.
0
95
.
0
05
.
0
95
.
0
05
.
0
)
(
)
(
×
+
×
×
=
+
+
=
P
D
P
333
.
0
1425
.
0
0475
.
0
=
=
P(No disorder | – result)
(
)
(
)
90
.
0
95
.
0
05
.
0
05
.
0
90
.
0
95
.
0
)
(
)
(
×
+
×
×
=
=
P
NotD
P
997
.
0
8575
.
0
855
.
0
=
=
If you have a negative result, you are almost certainly free of the disorder.
If you have a positive result, you are still probably disorder free though your chances of having
it are increased. Without the test you have a 5% chance of having it, with a positive test result
you have a 33% chance of having it.
5.
Part A
Both the normal distribution and the lognormal distribution are good models. In modelling
generally, we would use the simplest model which is acceptable. In this case the
normal
distribution.
Part B
The
exponential distribution
can be used. Note that the
Weibull
plot is also linear. As we will
see in a later section, the exponential distribution is a special case of the Weibull so this is as
expected.
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
99
95
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
1
Data
Percent
Normal Probability Plot for Part A
ML Estimates
Mean:
StDev:
4944.11
651.096
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
99
98
97
95
90
80
70
60
50
30
10
Data
Percent
Exponential Probability Plot for Part B
ML Estimates
Mean:
861.142
Part C
The
Weibull distribution
does best in the tails of the ID plot and all points are within limits in
the Weibull plot below.
Part D
ID plots of all the data show a clear outlier which needs investigating. Looking at the data, this
is item 89 recorded as 22250.0 Why is it so extreme? If it’s a
correct
value, we would want to
know why this item lasted so long – which would probably be the most interesting piece of
information in the data. If it’s
incorrect
, the value should be corrected or
removed. Without
any other information, it’s best to just remove it. (Actually, it was a data entry error. 22250.0
was entered instead of 2250.0). Plots with the outlier removed show that the
Weibull
distribution
is an excellent fit.
2000
1500
1000
99
95
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
3
2
1
Data
Percent
Weibull Probability Plot for Part C
ML Estimates
Shape:
Scale:
9.55028
1959.22
1000
100
99
95
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
3
2
1
Data
Percent
Weibull Probability Plot for Part D
ML Estimates
Shape:
Scale:
2.31695
940.548
Part E
The
lognormal distribution
is a good model.
Part F
ID plots (except the exponential) are S-shaped which suggests the distribution has more than
one peak. A histogram would help here. In fact it’s
bimodal
.
10000
1000
100
10
99
95
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
1
Data
Percent
Lognormal Probability Plot for Part E
ML Estimates
Location:
Scale:
5.06924
1.02544
4000
3000
2000
20
10
0
Part F
Frequency
Also on the worksheet in column C43 is an indicator for
Part F Type
. This shows that the first
50 items in column 6 are of one type and the second 50 are of another type. These should be
analysed separately. Splitting (stratifying) by type suggests that the original distribution may be
considered as a mixture of normal distributions. The probability plots are given below.
6.
(i) P(lifetime < 6000) = 0.95 approximately
(ii) 90% of items have lifetimes less than 5800 hours approximately which is the same as
saying that 10% of items will have lifetimes exceeding this amount.
7.
(i) P(lifetime > 3000) = 1 – p(lifetime < 3000) = 1 – 0.97 approximately. Thus this item has
3% reliability at 3000 hours.
(ii) The median will have 50% of lifetimes below it. From the plot this is roughly 550 hours.
Using Minitab, the mean of the sample of 100 lifetimes is 861 hours. From the plot just over
60% (or a proportion of 0.60) will fail before this time. The distribution is very positively skew
and, as expected, the mean is larger than the median.
8.
P(1500 < lifetime < 2000) = P(lifetime < 2000) – P(lifetime < 1500)
From the plot this is approximately 0.70 – 0.075 = 0.625
9.
The reliability at 1000 hours = P(lifetime > 1000)
1 – 0.96 = 0.04
Looking at the data in column 5 of the worksheet, it can be seen that 7 of the 100 items had
lifetimes of at least 1000 hours – a relative frequency of 7/100 = 0.07. This is similar to the
estimate obtained from the probability plot. However, because the estimate from the plot uses
more of the information in the data, it is likely to be closer to the true population value.
1
2
4000
3000
2000
99
95
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
1
Data
Percent
Normal Probability Plot for Part F By Part F Type