Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Plant Diversity Patterns in Africa [Elektronische Ressource] / Katharina Sabellek
135 Pages
English

Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Plant Diversity Patterns in Africa [Elektronische Ressource] / Katharina Sabellek

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RheinischenImpactrzofKathaLandMathematisch-NaturwissenschaftlichenUseBonnandausClimate(Dr.rer.nat.)Changeakult?tonriedrich-Wilhelms-UniversitPlantrgelegtDiversitSabyBonn,PesatternsderinFAfricaderDissertationFzur?tErlangungvodesvonDoktorinarellekgMannheimrM?a2010dAngefertigt mit Genehmigung der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät derRheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn.1. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Wilhelm Barthlott2. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Stefan PorembskiTag der Promotion: 31.05.2010iiiThe basic problem with usingextinction as an indicator is that bythe time you get the information, itis too late to take any actions.Robert Scholes, 2005iiiThe work for this thesis was carried out at the Nees Institute for Biodiversity of Plants,Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, headed by Prof. Dr. Wilhelm Barthlott,and builds on research on continental and global patterns of plant diversity conductedby the BIOMAPS working group. The study is embedded in the framework of the BIOTAWest Africa Project, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.Furthermore, it was supported by the project “Biodiversität im Wandel” funded by theAkademie der Wissenschaften und Literatur, Mainz.First of all, I would like to thank my supervisor Prof. Dr. Wilhelm Barthlott for his conti-nuous support and guidance. His interest and knowledge in the field of biodiversityresearch was a lasting inspiration for this PhD project.

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Published 01 January 2010
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RheinischenImpactrzofKathaLandMathematisch-NaturwissenschaftlichenUseBonnandausClimate(Dr.rer.nat.)Changeakult?tonriedrich-Wilhelms-UniversitPlantrgelegtDiversitSabyBonn,PesatternsderinFAfricaderDissertationFzur?tErlangungvodesvonDoktorinarellekgMannheimrM?a2010dAngefertigt mit Genehmigung der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der
Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn.
1. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Wilhelm Barthlott
2. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Stefan Porembski
Tag der Promotion: 31.05.2010
iiiThe basic problem with using
extinction as an indicator is that by
the time you get the information, it
is too late to take any actions.
Robert Scholes, 2005
iiiThe work for this thesis was carried out at the Nees Institute for Biodiversity of Plants,
Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, headed by Prof. Dr. Wilhelm Barthlott,
and builds on research on continental and global patterns of plant diversity conducted
by the BIOMAPS working group. The study is embedded in the framework of the BIOTA
West Africa Project, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
Furthermore, it was supported by the project “Biodiversität im Wandel” funded by the
Akademie der Wissenschaften und Literatur, Mainz.
First of all, I would like to thank my supervisor Prof. Dr. Wilhelm Barthlott for his conti-
nuous support and guidance. His interest and knowledge in the field of biodiversity
research was a lasting inspiration for this PhD project. I have learned not only scientific
techniques, but also more importantly, methods of scientific thinking. What I have
learned from him will greatly benefit my future career.
Prof. Dr. Stefan Porembski (University of Rostock) kindly agreed to co-supervise this
thesis, which I greatly acknowledge. Special thanks to Prof. Dr. Otto Richter (Technical
University of Braunschweig) for giving me the inspiration by his lectures during my
early studies and raising my interests in the field of ecosystem modelling.
A PhD thesis is not a piece of work that can be conducted in isolation. Many people
have contributed to it, both directly and indirectly. First and foremost, I am very much
indebted to Dr. Jan Henning Sommer, who coordinated the work of the BIOTA project
group with unfailing commitment. I honestly acknowledge his continuous support and
encouragement, and the provision of long-lasting motivation. As for my PhD-comrades,
I thank Sié Sylvestre Da and Jaime Ricardo Garcia Marquez for the time spent together
crossing all the research challenges that arose before us.
iv
andwledgementsPrefaceacknoI would like to thank my further BIOMAPS-colleagues Dr. Jens Mutke, Dr. Holger Kreft,
Dr. Daud Rafiqpoor, Dr. Nils Köster, and Dr. Wolfgang Küper for many fruitful comments
and critique, sophisticated data processing, and an enjoyable atmosphere. Special
thanks to Katja Seis, who always applied critical thinking to my work – bringing
confidence and encouragement. I am deeply thankful to the “HiWis”, each with their
own special talents. They contributed to this research in unique ways: Pascal Wauer,
Sebastian Eschweiler, Laurens Geffert, Christian Haase, and Anne-Marie Schnell. In this
context, I would like to thank all my colleagues of the Nees Institute for Biodiversity of
Plants and of the Botanical Gardens Bonn.
I like to express my gratitude to all cooperation partners that contributed to this pro-
ject, especially Dr. Rüdiger Schaldach and Jennifer Koch (CESR, University of Kassel),
Dr. Tobias Landmann (DLR, Würzburg), and Prof. Adjima Thiombiano (Université de
Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso). Thanks to the numerous scientists and institutions who
contributed to the development of the Biogeographic Information System on African
Plant Diversity (BISAP) and the West African Plant Database.
Many thanks to those who offered tangible and moral support during the time devoted
to this work: Richard Patrick Dwight, Marie-Luise Rost, Claudia Bruhn, Anke Stein,
and Antje Hagemann, Birte Handelmann, Anika Reetsch, Nina Sandt, Burga Thies, and
Julia Tiako.
My most sincere thanks to my parents, Anita and Günter, for supporting me constantly
throughout my studies and together with my brother Andreas for their constant and
indefinite encouragement.
vPreface and acknowledgements iv
1 General introduction 1
1.1 Biodiversity in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2 Land Use in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.3 Biodiversity versus land use patterns in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.4 Maintenance of biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.5 Scenarios of future development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.6 The BIOTA Africa project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.7 Institutional background of this study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2 Aims of this study 13
3 Impact of land use on biodiversity:
A critical overview of modelling approaches 15
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
3.2 Adaptation of the terms biodiversity and land use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.3 Three general modelling approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3.4 Results – a synthesis approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
3.5 Discussion – remaining issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
vi
ofablecontentsT4 Monitoring habitat loss of West African woody species:
Integrating niche modelling and remote sensing 35
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
4.2 Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
4.3 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
4.4 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
4.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
5 Current and future land use threats
to African plant diversity 55
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
5.2 Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
5.3 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
5.4 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
5.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
6 Quantifying the impact of land use and climate change
on African plant diversity 71
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
6.2 Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
6.3 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
6.4 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
6.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
7 General conclusions 93
8 Summary 97
9 Zusammenfassung 99
10 Bibliography 103
List of figures 122
List of tables 123
List of abbreviations 125
Curriculum vitae 126
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