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L'impact des attentats sur les réservations de vols vers Paris

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Impact of November 2015 Paris Attacks on Air Passenger Bookings ValenciaʹNovember 2015 press@forwardkeys.com st (November 21data update version) ͞ ƉƉůŝĞĚ ƚƌĂǀĞůĞƌ ŽƉĞƌĂƚŝŽŶĂů ŝŶƚĞůůŝŐĞŶĐĞ ƚŽ ƐƵƉƉŽƌƚ ƚĂĐƚŝĐĂů ďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐ ĚĞĐŝƐŝŽŶƐ͟ www.ForwardKeys.com Main Findings November 13th Attack Seriously Impacted Paris Inbound Trends 2 Last minute cancellations related to Business travel were the immediate reaction to attacks in th. Paris on Nov 13 Cancellations (and changes to issued bookings) have recovered to normal levels within one week of the tragedy, but new bookings have fallen dramatically below the previousLJĞĂƌ͛Ɛ. The U.S.A., China, Spain and Italy react most to attack. th When comparing new bookings issued after Nov 132015 with lastLJĞĂƌ͛Ɛ͕fastest drop is seen in those bookings more related with leisure travel. Looking ahead into Christmas, the regular growth in bookings for travel to Paris promptly plateaued right after the terror strike and is starting to slide downwards. The booking situation for arrivals during the Christmas holidays has become worrisome. While th it was down 2% vs 2014 as of Nov 13, latest figures now show a far larger 13% for the same arrival period. ©Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved.

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Published 14 December 2015
Reads 2 763
Language English
Impact of November 2015 Paris Attacks on Air Passenger Bookings
ValenciaNovember 2015
press@forwardkeys.com
st (November 21 data update version)
͞Applied traveler operational intelligenĐe to support taĐtiĐal ďusiness deĐisions͟
www.ForwardKeys.com
Main Findings November 13th Attack Seriously Impacted Paris Inbound Trends
2
Last minute cancellations related to Business travel were the immediate reaction to attacks in th. Paris on Nov 13
Cancellations (and changes to issued bookings) have recovered to normal levels within one week of the tragedy, but new bookings have fallen dramatically below the previousyear’s.
The U.S.A., China, Spain and Italy react most to attack.
th When comparing new bookings issued after Nov 13 2015 with lastyear’s,fastest drop is seen in those bookings more related with leisure travel.
Looking ahead into Christmas, the regular growth in bookings for travel to Paris promptly plateaued right after the terror strike and is starting to slide downwards.
The booking situation for arrivals during the Christmas holidays has become worrisome. While th it was down 2% vs 2014 as of Nov 13 , latest figures now show a far larger 13% for the same arrival period.
©Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved.
Total Int’l Bookings to Paris Paris severely impacted by Cancellations and Low Levels of New Bookings Early reaction led to massive cancellations, primarily from business and event travelers for immediate departures. Net bookings are dragged down by cancellations combined with a reduced amount of new bookings when coŵpared to last year’s.
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 -10,000 % YoY-15,000 Variation
3
Net Daily TotalIŶt’lBookings* (Nov 1st21st; 2015 vs 2014)
+6.8%
Attacks in Paris. th Nov 13
©ForwardKeys.com
-101%
01N0o2vN0o3vN0o4vN0o5vN0o6vN0o7vN0o8vN0o9vN1o0vN1o1vN1o2vN1o3vN1o4vN1o5vN1o6vN1o7vN1o8vN1o9vN2o0vN2o1vNov 2015 2014
©Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved.
Net Daily Bookings* . Top Markets. (Nov 14th21st; 2015 vs 2014) ©ForwardKeys.com -101%Total -102%U.S.A. -93%Algeria -53%U.K. -87%Germany -113%Spain -131%China -115%Italy -67%Canada -115%Brazil -99%Australia -68%Tunisia -106%Others
*Net bookings are the result of new bookings minus (-) cancellations over the analized time period. Lower than -100% net bookings indicate an immediate surge in cancellations that lead to a drop bigger than lastyear’snet bookings issued during the same time period.
Bookings and Cancellations Dynamics in the Aftermath Cancellations Back to Normal but Bookings Remain Down
4
When comparing cancellations, the immediate wave of mass cancellations passed after one week and have returned to normal levels. In the last 7 days, there were 21% more cancellations than in the same period last year. New Bookings set trend to a worrying 27% below last year, logically hampering future arrivals to Paris.
0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 -20,000 -25,000 -30,000 -35,000 -40,000
TotalIŶt’lDaily Cancellations th st (Nov 1421 ; 2015 vs 2014)
©ForwardKeys.com 21% 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
2015
2014
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
TotalIŶt’lDaily New Bookings th st (Nov 1421 ; 2015 vs 2014)
-27%
©ForwardKeys.com
©Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved.
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 2015 2014
©Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved.
New Bookings Performance Lack of New Bookings Affecting the Leisure Segment
5
Faster dropping profiles are typical of the Leisure segment, including stays between 4 and 5 nights, small groups, mid lead times and OTAs.
-20%
TotalIŶt’lNew Bookings Performance by Length of Stay, Pax per Booking, Lead Time and Distribution Channel th st (Nov 142015 vs 2014)21 ;
-23%
Length of Stay
-31% -32% 1 nights 2 nights 3 nights 4 to 5 nights
-38% Online TA
-31% 6 to 8 nights
-24%
9 to 13 nights
Distribution Channel
-18%
Corporate TA
©ForwardKeys.com
-22%
14 to 21 nights
-24%
22 nights or more
©ForwardKeys.com
-26%
Retail TA
-17%
-38%
Pax per Booking
-36%
-38%
-37%
©ForwardKeys.com
-40%
1 person 2 persons 3 persons 4 persons 5 persons 6-9 persons
-3%
0 to 4 days
©Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved.
-14%
-30%
Lead Times
-48%
-39%
-30%
-4%
10+ persons
©ForwardKeys.com
-31%
-28%
5 to 14 15 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 to 89 90 to 120 to days days days days days 119 days 364 days
Bookings for Key Travel Dates Impacted Cancellations and limited bookings impacting COP21 and Christmas
6
Cancellations primary focus on trips due on the weekend after the attacks. Second most impacted period is day before the start of U.N. Climate Change Conference COP21*. th Demand for arrivals during Christmas period has plateaued since Nov 13 .
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
-10000
-12000
-14000
-16000 10 Nov
Cancellations by Arrival Date th st (Nov 1421 ; 2015 vs 2014)
Paris Attacks th Nov 13
17 Nov
24 Nov
*http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/
2015
2014
COP21 th th Nov 30Dec 11
01 Dec
08 Dec
15 Dec
©ForwardKeys.com
22 Dec
29 Dec
©Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved.
Development of Demand for Arrivals in Christmas th st (Dec 2431 ; 2015 vs 2014) ©ForwardKeys.com 2015 2014
100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 Pax 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
Paris Attacks th Nov 13
Booking Date
Christmas Arrivals in Paris Booking Situation Worsening After Attacks
7
th Previously negative picture becomes more worrisome after Nov 13 , when all main source markets for Christmas 2015 worsen. All source markets are down, with strongest impact on the USA, Spain, Japan and Germany
%Var Arrivals On The Book (Dec 24th to 31st vs same period 2014) st Based on booking situation as of Nov 13th vs Nov 21 ©ForwardKeys.com
%Var Arrivals On The Book By Top Source Markets (Dec 24th to 31st vs same period 2014) st Based on booking situation as of Nov 13th vs Nov 21 ©ForwardKeys.com
©Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved.
Methodology and Glossary
rd This analysis is based on Air Reservation Data property of ForwardKeys® as of 23 November 2015. Database contains reservations handled by more than 200 000 online and offline travel agencies worldwide. Database st updated as of21 November 2015.
Perimeter: Destination: Paris Source Market: Total International bookings Period: st st nd nd Booking history: 1 October to 21 November 2015 vs. 2 October to 22 November 2014. th stth st Arrivals on the book: Arrival dates from201531 Dec 24 to Novemberbased on issued bookings as of 13 and 21 th st 2015. Variations are calculated comparing with booking situation for arrivals 24 to 31 Dec 2014. Lengths of Stay: Current analysis includes only those reservations staying at least 1 night at destination, therefore excluding transits, day trips or one way trips. Arrivalsrefer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific time frame.
Arrivals on the Book (OTB Arrivals)refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific future time frame according to the bookings that have been issued as noted.
Bookingsrepresent air reservations made for travel to the specific destination (i.e. Paris) for any date of travel.
Net Bookingsequal to reservations that have been made minus cancellations.
Cancellationsinclude modifications to any previously issued booking as well as final cancellation.
November Paris Attackinformation extracted from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2015_Paris_attacks
The content and the data provided in this document are for information only. press@forwardkeys.com ©Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved.