European Union economic report 2008.

Description

Vue économique d'ensemble, situation économique des grands pays, développements récents de l'industrie automobile, tarification, politique environnementale dans le domaine du transport.
Bruxelles. http://temis.documentation.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/document.xsp?id=Temis-0053862

Subjects

• Documents
• Others
• Transport
• Automobile
• Commerce international
• Consommation
• Droit de l'Union européenne
• Droit du transport
• Économie de l'Europe
• Indicateur économique
• Économie de la construction automobile
• Inflation
• Investissement
• Politique des transports de l'Union européenne
• Statistiques
• Transport en Europe

Informations

• Published by: temis-developpement-durable
• Published: 01 January 2008
• Reads: 8
• Language: English
• Document size: 6 MB

Exrait

EU ECONOMIC REPORT
December 2008





CONTRIBUTORS
Country Association Contact E ‐mail Telephone
D. Rozsenich [e-mail] [phone]
        Austria FFO  
G. Klausner [e-mail] [phone]
        Belgium FEBIAC  N. Atanassoff [e-mail] [phone]
S. Hadjinikolov [e-mail] [phone]
        Bulgaria ACM D. Simeonov [phone]
Y. Spassov  [phone]
        Czech Republic AIACR S. Dolezal [e-mail] [phone]
T. Laustsen Jensen [e-mail] [phone]
        Denmark DK BIL
B. Johansen [e-mail] [phone]
        Estonia AMTEL J. Uudla [e-mail] [phone]
        Finland AUTOTUOJAT  H. Tamminen [e-mail] [phone]
        France CCFA  L. Massenet [e-mail] [phone]
R. Diemer [e-mail] [phone]
        Germany VDA  A. Mans [e-mail] [phone]
A. Fritz [e-mail] + 49 69 97 507 271
D. Patsios [e-mail]
        Greece  AMVIR  [phone]
A. Koulas [e-mail]@otenet.gr gr
C. Baski csilla.baski@knorr‐bremse.com
        Hungary AHAI [phone]
I. Zubornyák Ildiko.Zubornyak@knorr‐bremse.com
B. Cooke
        Ireland SIMI  [e-mail] [phone]
L. Joyce
        Italy ANFIA  E. Pregnolato [e-mail] [phone]
O. Ozols [e-mail]
        Latvia LAADA [phone]
N. Zunna [e-mail]
        Lithuania LAA [e-mail] [phone]
C. Boutens [e-mail] [phone]
        Netherlands RAI L. Bingen [e-mail] [phone]
A. Blom [e-mail] [phone]
        Poland PZPM A. Brzozowska [e-mail]  [phone]
A. Cavaco [e-mail] [phone]
        Portugal ACAP 
R. Archer [e-mail] [phone]
        Romania ACAROM C. Stroe [e-mail] [phone]
L. Ujhelyi [e-mail] [phone]
        Slovakia AIASR
M. Červeňanský [e-mail] [phone]
        Slovenia ADS [phone]
A. Mur [e-mail]
        Spain ANFAC [phone]
M. Moreno [e-mail]
        Sweden BIL SWEDEN M. Mattsson [e-mail] [phone]
        United Kingdom SMMT M. Croucher [e-mail] [phone]CONTENTS 

 
European Union Economic Report 

EU27 Economic Outlook 
Summary table 
Report 
 
Recent Developments in the Motor Vehicle Industry: 
New motor vehicle registrations 
Report 
Technical specifications: diesel, cubic capacity, power, segments & bodies 
Motor vehicle production 
Report 
Summary table 
Total motor vehicles 
Passenger Cars 
Light commercial vehicles 
Medium & heavy commercial vehicles 
Buses & coaches 
Vehicles in use 
Employment 
Car price index 
 
EU27 Taxation, Environment and Transport Policies 
 
 
 
Country Reports 
 
 
AT  Austria         BG  Bulgaria 
BE  Belgium         CZ  Czech Republic 
DK  Denmark         EE  Estonia 
FI  Finland         LV  Latvia 
FR  France         PL  Poland 
DE  Germany         RO  Romania 
EL  Greece         SK  Slovakia 
IT  Italy 
NL  Netherlands 
PT  Portugal 
ES  Spain 
SE  Sweden 
UK  United Kingdom 
 
????????????????







EUROPEAN UNION

ECONOMIC REPORT













Brussels, December 2008
ACEA
Quynh-Nhu Huynh
Tel.: + 32 2 738 73 55
E-mail: [e-mail]


ECONOMIC REPORT - EUROPEAN UNION 200812 Economic Outlook ‐ EU27
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% chg % chg % chg  % chg  % chg % chg % chg % chg % chg
02/01 03/02 04/03 05/04 06/05 07/06 08/07 09/08 10/09
forecast forecast forecast
Real GDP
Euro area +0.9 +0.8 +2.2 +1.7 +2.9 +2.7 +1.2 +0.1 +0.9
(European Commission)*
EU27 +1.2 +1.3 +2.5 +2.0 +3.1 +2.9 +1.4 +0.2 +1.1
Constant prices
Real GDP
Euro area +0.9 +0.8 +1.9 +1.8 +3.0 +2.6 +1.0 ‐0.2 n.a.
(Consensus Forecasts)**
EU27 n.a. n.a. n.a. +1.7 +3.1 +2.9 +1.3 0.0 n.a.
Constant prices
Last Economic Report Euro area +0.9 +0.8 +2.1 +1.6 +2.8 +2.6 +1.7 +1.5
GDP Forecast EU27 +1.2 +1.3 +2.5 +1.9 +3.1 +2.8 +2.0 +1.8
Euro area +0.9 +1.2 +1.6 +1.8 +2.0 +1.6 +0.5 +0.4 +1.0
Private Consumption*
EU27 +1.6 +1.7 +2.1 +2.0 +2.3 +2.2 +1.0 +0.2 +0.8
Industrial Production** Euro area ‐0.5 +0.3 +2.1 +1.4 +4.0 +3.4 +0.2 ‐1.4 n.a.
Euro areaarea ‐141.4 +1.3 +2+2.3 +3.3 +5.5 +4+4.33 +1.2 ‐262.6 +0.22
Gross FixedFixed Capital Formation*
Constant Prices
EU27 ‐0.5 +1.3 +3.0 +3.6 +6.1 +5.4 +1.2 ‐1.9 +0.9
Euro area +2.2 +1.9 +2.2 +2.2 +2.2 +2.1 +3.5 +2.2 +2.1
Consumer Prices*
HICP
EU27 +2.3 +2.1 +2.3 +2.3 +2.3 +2.4 +3.9 +2.4 +2.2
USD/barrel 25.0 28.5 38.0 55.1 66.2 72.5 104.0 85.7 90.4
Crude Petroleum*
(+0.1) (+13.9) (33.4) (+44.7) (+20.2) (+9.5) (+43.4) (‐17.5) (+5.5)
Euro area 127.8 105.0 104.4 49.4 24.8 60.7 33.9 55.1 70.4
Trade Balance*
€ bn
EU27 n.a. n.a. ‐43.1 ‐101.5 ‐168.4 ‐160.2 ‐188.8 ‐166.6 ‐148.1
Euro area 56.9 33.6 63.8 10.1 ‐10.8 13.1 ‐33.1 ‐10.7 ‐5.5
Current Account Balance*
€ bn
EU27 n.a. n.a. 10.3 ‐27.6 ‐96.3 ‐80.8 ‐116.0 ‐93.7 ‐75.3
Euro area +8.5 +8.6 +9.0 +9.0 +8.3 +7.5 +7.6 +8.4 +8.7
Unemployment*
EU27 +8.8 +8.9 +9.0 +8.9 +8.2 +7.1 +7.0 +7.8 +8.1
Data is seasonally adjusted
* European Commission, Eurostat/DG ECFIN ‐ Autumn 2008 Economic Forecast; Annual % change unless otherwise indicated
** Consensus Foreacasts November 2008
NB: Unemployment is expressed in % of total workforce, ILO definition.
5
ECONOMICECONOMIC  REPORTREPORT ‐  ‐ EUROPEANEUROPEAN  UNIONUNION  2008122008121Euro area and EU27 economic outlook – January-September 2008


Growth aggravated with escalating financial crisis

After a solid year 2007 where growth was sustained both in the euro area (+2.7%) and in
the EU 27 (+2.9%) amid torments on international financial markets, 2008 has been marked
in its second half with exceptional uncertainty of the economic situation, while the first half of
the year was characterized by a relatively robust growth. September and October’s financial
meltdown exacerbated the squeeze in credit, which deepened the financial crisis and led to
important policy measures taken by governments and central banks, both in the US and EU.
Consequently, the European Commission has revised its forecasts significantly downwards
and projected growth in the euro zone and in the EU27 to drop sharply to 1.2% and 1.4%,
respectively, in 2008 and to 0.1% and 0.2% in 2009 (down from the 1.5% and 1.8% formerly
predicted). Growth is expected to pick up again in 2010, by 0.9% in the euro zone and by
1.1% in the EU27. Eurostat estimated the decline of GDP for the third quarter of 2008 to be
0.2% both in the euro area and in the EU27 (quarter-on-quarter). In the second quarter of
2008, growth rates were -0.2% in the euro area and 0.0% in the EU27. Seasonally adjusted
GDP grew on a yearly basis by 0.7% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU27.

US GDP growth, thanks to the positive carry-over from 2007 (+2.0%), in addition to the good
performance in the first half of this year, is projected to be sustained at 1.5% in 2008, before
declining by 0.5% in 2009 and resuming up again by 1.0% in 2010. Growth in Japan is
expected to slow markedly, from 2.1% in 2007 to 0.4% in 2008 and -0.4% in 2009, before
picking up to 0.6% in 2010.
In the third quarter of 2008, GDP decreased by 0.1% in the US (quarter-on-quarter). On a
yearly basis, US GDP rose by 0.8% in the US.

Eurostat forecast


Business and industrial confidence at lowest since 1993

Since mid-2007, the Commission’s business and industrial confidence indicator for the euro
area has been gradually decreasing, yet remaining well above its long-term average of -7.
However, since the summer, it has deteriorated below the long-term average threshold,
reaching in November 2008 -25, its lowest level since September 1993 (-27).

All the components of the indicator contributed to the decrease. The production trend
observed in recent months fell sharply while stocks of finished products increased. Industry
managers’ assessment of their current order books and export order books increasingly
worsened. Production expectations also deteriorated considerably.

Industrial production fell by 1.6% in September compared to August. Compared with
September last year, the decrease was 2.4%. The decline affected production of all product
categories.

6
1
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat, DG ECFIN – ‘ European Economy, Economic Forecasts, Autumn 2008’, ‘Key Euro
Area Indicators’, ‘Business and Consumer Surveys’), European Central Bank (‘Monthly Bulletin’), Consensus Forecasts Investment down 1% in second quarter

Gross fixed capital formation fell by 1.0% in the second quarter of 2008 (quarter-on-quarter).
Investment in equipment slightly decreased by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2008 while
construction investment dropped by 1.6% over the same period. On an annual basis,
investment growth was 2.5% in the second quarter of 2008. The 82.8% capacity utilisation in
the manufacturing sector in the third quarter of 2008 remained above its long-term average
(82.0%).

Private consumption up 0.3% in second quarter (y-o-y)

The European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator dropped to the level of -25 in
November, its lowest value in nearly fifteen years and well below its long-term average of
-12. The deterioration was mainly driven by the consumers’ worsened expectations as to the
current labor market and the general economic situation.
Private consumption contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2008 (q-o-q). On an annual
basis, household consumption expenditure rose by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2008.

Trade deficit of 5.6 bn euro for euro-area; 23.0 bn euro for EU27

Eurostat estimates for the euro area trade balance revealed a deficit of 5.6 bn euro in
September 2008, compared with the 2.9 bn euro surplus registered in September 2007. The
balance indicated a deficit of 9.4 bn euro in August 2008, compared with the 1.1 bn euro
surplus recorded in August 2007.
The extra-EU27 trade balance for September 2008 resulted in a deficit of 23.0 bn euro, while
a lesser deficit was registered in September 2007 (16.6 bn euro).

Euro area unemployment rate stable at 7.5%; EU27 up to 7.0%

In September 2008, the unemployment rate was stable at 7.5% in the euro area, compared
with August, while the EU27 recorded the slightly lower figure of 7.0%, compared with 6.9%
in August. The euro area saw the situation on its labor market somewhat deteriorate
compared with September last year (7.3%). In the EU27, the situation remained stable as
the unemployment rate registered in September 2007 was the same (7.0%).
Compared with a year ago, seventeen Member States recorded a fall in their unemployment
rate, nine an increase and one remained stable.


Source: Eurostat

7ECONOMIC REPORT – EUROPEAN UNION 200812
EU inflation down to 3.2%

Inflation further increased throughout the first half of 2008, reaching its highest level in
twelve years, with a peak of 4.4% in the EU in July and 4.0% in the euro area. However, the
slowdown in economic activity, triggering higher unemployment and weakened domestic
demand growth, has contributed to ease domestic pressures on consumer prices. Headline
inflation was 3.2% in October 2008 in the euro area and 3.7% in the EU, down from 3.6%
and 4.2% respectively in September. A year earlier, the rate was 2.6% and 2.7%.

Core inflation (HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food) in the euro zone in October
2008 remained at 2.4%, although headline inflation recently eased considerably.

The main components with the highest annual rates in October 2008 were housing (5.9%),
food (4.7%) and transport (3.7%), while the lowest annual rates were observed for
communications (-2.2%), recreation & culture (0.2%) and clothing (1.0%).

The euro area industrial producer price index declined by 0.2% in September 2008
compared to August, and increased by 7.9% compared to September last year.

Oil prices at 2005 level low

The Brent Index continued to soar in the summer to reach a record-high at 145.65 USD on
July 4. In September, oil prices fluctuated sharply before resuming their downward trend in
October, declining by more than 30% in USD and almost 25% in EUR. In the course of
November, oil prices continued to tumble, reaching less than 50 USD per barrel at the end of
the month, a level last seen in May 2005. The decrease is due to slowing global demand,
unwinding of speculative positions and the concerns about spill-over effects of the financial
crisis into the real economy.


Monetary and Financial Indicators

ECB interest rates

On October 8, 2008, the ECB Governing Council decided that the main refinancing
operations of the Eurosystem would be carried out through a fixed-rate tender procedure,
and not through the variable-rate tender procedure which has been in force since June 2000.
The fixed rate was first set at 3.75%, then decreased to 3.25% on November 12. The
interest rate on the marginal lending facility is noted at 3.75% in November 2008 and the
interest rate on the deposit facility at 2.75%.


8ECONOMIC REPORT – EUROPEAN UNION 200812
2Exchange rates

On the foreign exchange rate markets, the dollar further continued to weaken against the
euro from March to July, when the euro stood at a record-high (1.58 USD).From August on,
however, started to appreciate against the euro again. In October, the euro stood at 1.33
USD.

The euro had been appreciating vis-à-vis the Yen since April this year and reached a peak of
168.45 in July. In August, it still stood over 160 JPY but rapidly eased in September (153.2)
and dropped at 133.52 in October, the lowest level since June 2005.


Source: European Commission, ECB


2
Against 13 other industrialized countries, double export weighted, 1995 = 100
9ECONOMIC REPORT – EUROPEAN UNION 200812 Registrations of new motor vehicles in Europe
(January – October 2008)











Registrations – Jan – Oct Jan – Oct %Ch Forecast*
WESTERN EUROPE (4) 2008 2007 08/07 2008
New Car Registrations 11,838,846 12,614,483 -6.1% -6.3%
New LCV Registrations (1) 1,576,296 1,722,362 -8.5% -7.9%
New Truck Registrations (2) 324,011 315,677 2.6%
New Bus Registrations (3) 34,503 33,443 3.2%
Total New Registrations 13,773,656 14,685,965 -6.2%











Registrations – Jan – Oct Jan – Oct %Ch Forecast*
TOTAL EUROPE (5) 2008 2007 08/07 2008
New Car Registrations 12,828,310 13,580,242 -5.5% -5.4%
New LCV Registrations (1) 1,765,967 1,889,767 -6.6% -6.0%
New Truck Registrations (2) 377,934 380,099 -0.6%
New Bus Registrations (3) 40,176 37,021 8.5%
Total New Registrations 15,012,387 15,887,129 -5.5%





Source: ACEA, National Associations
* November 2008 projections
(1) Light Commercial Vehicles up to 3.5t (including light Buses & Coaches)
(2) Commercial Vehicles above 3.5t (excluding Buses & Coaches)
(3) Buses & Coaches above 3.5t
(4) WESTERN Europe = EU15 + EFTA3 (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)
(5) TOTAL Europe = EU27 (excluding Malta and Cyprus) + EFTA3 (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)

10
ECONOMIC REPORT – EUROPEAN UNION 200812