One Goal, Two Paths

One Goal, Two Paths

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Despite the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region's impressive economic growth, over 1 billion of its people still lack access to electricity and modern cooking solutions. To achieve universal access to modern energy by 2030, this book exhorts EAP countries to advance simultaneously on two paths: (1) accelerate programs for grid and off-grid electricity through appropriate policies and innovative technologies; and (2) scale up access to clean cooking fuels and efficient cooking stoves, particularly for biomass in poor rural areas.

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Published 14 September 2011
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EAN13 9780821388372
Language English
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ONE GOALONE GOAL,, TWO P TWO PAATTHSHS One Goal, Two PathsOne Goal, Two Paths
Achieving Universal Access to Modern
Energy in East Asia and the Pacif c
Washington, DC© 2011 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
Telephone: 202-473-1000
Internet: www.worldbank.org
All rights reserved
1 2 3 4 14 13 12 11
This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World
Bank. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily refl ect the views
of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent.
The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,
denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the
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boundaries.
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The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without
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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Offi ce of the Pub-
lisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@
worldbank.org.
ISBN: 978-0-8213-8837-2
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8870-9
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8837-2
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data have been requested.
The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the authors and
not necessarily those of the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAid).
Cover photographs
Left: Woman using New Lao Stove. http://www.fl ickr.com/photos/ashdenawards/4306546092/
Right: Extending the electricity grid to remote areas. iStockphoto.
Cover/book design: LJ Design, Bethesda, Maryland
Typesetting: BMW&W Publishing Services, Baltimore, MarylandCONTENTS
Foreword ix
Acknowledgments xi
Abbreviations xiii
Executive Summary 1
Two Faces of Energy Poverty: Lack of Access to Electricity and Modern Cooking Solutions 1
Electrifi cation and Development: Fighting Poverty and Stimulating the Economy 3
Modern Cooking Solutions: Clean Fuels and Advanced Cookstoves 10
One Goal: Achieving Universal Energy Access 14
1 Two Paths to Universal Energy Access in the EAP Region 17
Energy Access, Poverty, and Development 17
Electricity Access in EAP: Success, Stagnation, and a Rural-Urban Divide 21
Laying Out the Energy Access Challenges for EAP Countries 23
2 Designing a National Electrif cation Program for Universal Access 31
Cost-Effectiveness: Least-Cost Technical Options for Desired Reliability and Quality of Service 31
Affordability of Electricity Access 38
Consumer Focus and Timing of Electrifi cation 42
Universal and Business-as-Usual Electricity Access Scenarios 45
3 Electricity Access: Delivering Results on the Ground 51
Sustained Government Commitment 51
Effective Enabling Policy Framework 54
Accountability for Results 62
4 Modern Cooking Solutions: Status and Challenges 65
Relationship among Traditional Cooking Solutions, Health, and Poverty 65
Status of Cooking Fuel Use in EAP 68
Policies to Encourage Clean and Effi cient Cooking 69
Advances in Cookstoves and Biogas Systems 73
Two Scenarios for Modern Cooking Solutions 77
5 Modern Cooking Solutions: The Way Forward 83
What Is Different from the Past? 83
Policy and Technical Support for New Approaches 84
Pathway to Implementation 89
vvi ONE GOAL, TWO PATHS: ACHIEVING UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO MODERN ENERGY IN EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
6 One Goal: Achieving Universal Energy Access in the EAP Region 95
Both Paths Must Be Implemented 95
Both Paths Will Bring Signifi cant Economic, Social, and Environmental Benefi ts to All EAP Countries 95
Appendixes 103
1 Electricity Access: Selected Country Briefs 103
A1.1 Cambodia 104
A1.2 Indonesia 110
A1.3 Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) 116
A1.4 Mongolia 122
A1.5 The Philippines 127
A1.6 Pacifi c Island Countries (PICs) 132
A1.7 Vietnam 149
2 Energy Access Projects Funded in the EAP Region by IBRD, IDA, and GEF, 2001–10 157
References 161
Boxes
1.1 Importance of Modern Energy in Achieving Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 19
1.2 China: Steady but Slow Transition to Modern Cooking Fuels 25
1.3 China: Sustained Commitment to Universal Electrifi cation 26
2.1 Low-Cost Technical Options in Grid-Based Electrifi35
2.2 Vietnam: Balancing Speed and Quality in Electricity Grid Expansion 37
2.3 Technology Advances in Off-Grid Electrifi cation 38
2.4 Electricity Connection Fees in Selected Developing Countries Including EAP 41
2.5 GIS-Based Spatial Planning Platform: Powerful Tool for National Electrifi cation Program Rollouts 44
3.1 Thailand: Clear Criteria and Transparent Process for Electrifi cation Expansion 53
3.2 Cambodia: Proposed Sector-Wide Approach for Electricity Access Expansion 57
3.3 Raising and Channeling Subsidies for Rural Electrifi cation 58
3.4 Power to the Poor (P2P) Program: Affordable Connection Fees for the Poorest in Lao PDR 60
3.5 New Options for Serving Basic Electricity Needs in Off-Grid Areas 61
3.6 Applying Output-Based Aid (OBA) to Improve Accountability in Providing Energy Access 63
4.1 Women’s “Invisible” Work 68
4.2 Promoting LPG Use: Thailand’s Successful Approach 74
4.3 New Effi cient and Cleaner Burning Stoves for China: Scope for Renewed Efforts 75
4.4 Setting up Supply Chain for New Lao Charcoal Stoves in Cambodia 76
4.5 Biogas Energy and Carbon Financing in the World Bank’s Hubei Eco-Farming Project, China 77
5.1 New Advanced Biomass Cookstoves Initiative in India 84
5.2 Potential for Financing Effi cient Biomass Stove Projects through Climate and Carbon
Funding Mechanisms 87
5.3 Water and Sanitation Program: Potential Model to Promote Modern Cooking Solutions 88
A1.6.1 Tonga Energy Roadmap: Many Partners, One Team, One Plan 141
A1.6.2 Advanced Battery Storage Technologies to Enhance Integration of Intermittent Renewable Energy
Generation into Grid 144
A1.6.3 Fiji Electricity Authority: Good-Practice Neighbor Offering a Helping Hand 145
Figures
1 Rural-Urban Divide in Access to Modern Energy in EAP 2
2 Lack of Access to Modern Cooking Fuels and Its Relative Health Impacts in Developing Countries,
2008–30 3Contents vii
3 Growth in Electricity Access versus GDP per Capita in EAP, 2000–09 4
4 Electricity Access in EAP: Business-as-Usual and Universal Access Scenarios, 2010–30 5
5 Schematic Profi les of Relative Costs of Electricity Supply: Main Grid versus Household Solar PV Systems 6
6 Investment Needs in Business-as-Usual and Universal Access Scenarios: Electricity, 2011–30 9
7 Patterns of Cooking Fuel Use in EAP Countries, 2009 11
8 Use of Cooking Fuels in EAP by Urban and Rural Populations, 2010–30 12
9 Investment Needs for Modern Cookstoves under Business-as-Usual and Universal Access Scenarios
by Cooking Fuel 15
1.1 Population without Access to Modern Energy 18
1.2 GDP per Capita versus Electricity Use, 2008 18
1.3 Exposure to Indoor Air Pollution from Biomass in Developing Countries: A Major Health Issue,
2008–30 20
1.4 Poverty and Lack of Access to Electricity by Country, 2008 21
1.5 Growth in Electricity Access versus GDP per Capita in EAP, 2000–09 22
1.6 Rural-Urban Divide in Electricity Access in EAP Countries, 2008 23
1.7 Poverty and Lack of Access to Modern Cooking Fuels: EAP and Other Countries, 2007 24
1.8 vide in Use of Modern Cooking Fuels in EAP Countries, 2007 24
2.1 Estimated Shares of Grid-Based and Off-Grid Electricity in EAP Countries, 2009 32
2.2 Schematic Profi les of Relative Costs of Electricity Supply: Main Grid versus HH Solar PV Systems 34
2.3 Indicative Electricity Tariffs for Small Customers in EAP Countries 39
2.4 Transitional Off-Grid Areas Shrink as Grid Expands 43
2.5 Electricity Access: Estimated Results of Business-as-Usual and Universal Access Scenarios, 2010–30 45
3.1 Principles Underlying Successful Electrifi cation Programs 52
4.1 Household Biomass Energy Use versus GDP per Capita in Developing Countries, 2007 67
4.2 Rural-Urban Divide in Use of Modern Cooking Fuels in EAP Countries, 2008 69
4.3 Patterns of Cooking Fuel Use in EAP Countries 70
4.4 Testing New Generation of Stoves in China 75
4.5 Baseline (2010) and Projected (2030) Cooking Fuel Use in EAP 78
4.6 Investment Needs for Modern Cookstoves under Business-as-Usual and Universal Access Scenarios
by Cooking Fuel 80
6.1 Investment Requirements for Universal Access to Electricity and Modern Cooking Solutions in EAP,
2011–30 96
6.2 Focusing on the “Second Front”: Households beyond Reach of Standard Delivery Mechanisms
for Modern Energy Access 98
A1.2.1 Electricity Access in Indonesia: Urban versus Rural, 2009 113
A1.6.1 World Bank East Asia and the Pacifi c Region Member Island Countries 136
Box f gures
1.2.1 Households cooking mainly with LPG or electricity in China, 1989–2006 25
2.1.1 SWER line, New Zealand 35
2.4.1 Indicative electricity connection fees in selected developing countries 41
2.5.1 GIS mapping for electrifi cation rollout in Rwanda, 2009–20 44
3.5.1 Solar-powered LED light and cell phone charger 61
4.4.1 Cooking with New Lao Stove 76
A1.6.2.1 Use of NaS batteries for peak shaving 144
A1.6.3.1 FEA staff explain features of new electricity connection to customers 145
A1.6.3.2 Electricity tariffs among lowest in Pacifi c, including Australia and New Zealand 146viii ONE GOAL, TWO PATHS: ACHIEVING UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO MODERN ENERGY IN EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
Tables
1 Electricity Access in EAP, 2009 4
2 Electricity Access Challenges in EAP 5
3 Renewable Energy Options for Off-Grid Areas 9
1.1 Electricity Access in EAP Region, 2009 22
1.2 Population without Modern Cooking Fuels in EAP, 2009 24
1.3 Electricity Access Challenges in EAP 27
1.4 Context and Challenges for Promoting Modern Cooking Solutions in EAP 28
2.1 Levelized Power-Generating Costs for Various Technologies, 2005 33
2.2 Current National Targets for Electricity Access 43
2.3 Households Obtaining Electricity Access in EAP by 2030: Universal Access versus Business-as-Usual
Scenarios 46
2.4 Investment Needs for Electricity y 2030: Universal Access ver
Scenarios 46
2.5 Investment Needs for Business-as-Usual and Universal Access Scenarios for Electricity Access
in EAP Countries by 2030 47
2.6 Universal Access Scenario for Electricity: Annual Incremental Needs by EAP Country by 2030 48
3.1 Tunisia: Multiple Funding Sources for Rural Electrifi cation 56
4.1 Annual Premature Deaths Attributed to Air Pollution from Cooking with Solid Fuels
in EAP Countries, 2007 66
4.2 Population Relying on Traditional and Modern Fuels in Developing Countries, 2007 69
4.3 Overview of Policies That Promote Clean and Effi cient Cooking in Urban and Rural Areas 71
A1.1.1 Cambodia: Scenario Analysis for Universal Electricity Access by 2030 105
A1.2.1 Indonesia: Scenario vericity 111
A1.3.1 Lao PDR: Scenario versal Electricity Access by 2030 117
A1.4.1 Mongolia: Scenario Analysis for Univericity 123
A1.5.1 Philippines: Scenario versal Electricity Access by 2030 128
A1.6.1 EAP Region Pacifi c Island Countries Selected Indicators 133
A1.6.2 EAP Pacifi c Island Countries Electricity Grid Access and Cell Phone Coverage, 2009 134
A1.6.3 EAP Pacifiies: Physical Geography and Population Settlement Patterns 135
A1.7.1 Vietnam: Scenario Analysis for Universal Electricity Access by 2030 150