Wheat Comment 10-21-09
2 Pages
English
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Wheat Comment 10-21-09

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2 Pages
English

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Wheat Morning Update & Commentary In typical bi-polar wheat fashion, wheat traded almost 10 higher and 10 lower on the day, last ticked in positive territory, and settled by the exchange in negative territory. With the abundant supply of wheat world wide, and bearish fundamentals set firmly in stone, its no wonder why some traders are feeling frustration with the performance of the CBOT wheat contract. Increased volume in MPLS trade, could be the first sign that traders and hedgers are tired of being victims. In cash markets, Columbia Grain & United Harvest were both sellers of Wheat to a private Taiwan firm. Total wheat purchased was 73,840 mt. Japan also moved for 7,000 mt of feed wheat under the SBS system. Morocco, Bangladesh, and Iraq remain around the market for wheat. SRW Basis remains flat with a full pipeline overhanging the market. HRW has firmed as more buyers seem to be stepping into the market. PNW pipeline remains full despite the recent purchase by Taiwan. Concerns continue to mount over the affect of drought on Ukraine's newly planted wheat crop, but UkrAgroConsult says such claims are "pessimistic", as 70% of the crop remains in satisfactory condition.. Russia's ag ministry said as of Oct 20th 98.8 mln mt of grain had been harvested, 10% lower than last year's bumper crop. Grain harvest was also said to 91% complete. Iran, which was forced to import wheat last year, noted grain stocks in the country were at 14 mil tons, versus ...

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http://www.linngroup.com
Page 1 of 2
312.896.2001
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be
reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for
informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates
may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wheat Morning Update & Commentary
In typical bi-polar wheat fashion, wheat traded almost 10 higher and 10 lower on the day, last ticked in
positive territory, and settled by the exchange in negative territory. With the abundant supply of wheat
world wide, and bearish fundamentals set firmly in stone, its no wonder why some traders are feeling
frustration with the performance of the CBOT wheat contract. Increased volume in MPLS trade, could
be the first sign that traders and hedgers are tired of being victims. In cash markets, Columbia Grain &
United Harvest were both sellers of Wheat to a private Taiwan firm.
Total wheat purchased was 73,840
mt. Japan also moved for 7,000 mt of feed wheat under the SBS system. Morocco, Bangladesh, and Iraq
remain around the market for wheat. SRW Basis remains flat with a full pipeline overhanging the
market. HRW has firmed as more buyers seem to be stepping into the market. PNW pipeline remains
full despite the recent purchase by Taiwan. Concerns continue to mount over the affect of drought on
Ukraine's newly planted wheat crop, but UkrAgroConsult says such claims are "pessimistic", as 70% of
the crop remains in satisfactory condition.. Russia's ag ministry said as of Oct 20th 98.8 mln mt of grain
had been harvested, 10% lower than last year's bumper crop.
Grain harvest was also said to 91%
complete.
Iran, which was forced to import wheat last year, noted grain stocks in the country were at 14
mil tons, versus expected consumption of 12 mil tons.
Overnight markets had a somewhat subdued Sunday evening with Chicago closing up 7 3/4 cents on
2264 contracts. Kansas City finished overnight trade up 8 1/4 cents and MPLS closed up 7 cents. Kansas
City/Chicago spread is trading at 12 1/4 cents. The MPLS/Chicago spread is at 27 cents. Euronext
(Matif) Milling Wheat continues to gain with a last trade at $5.16/bu USD in the Nov.
Globex Overnight
Contract
Last
Net Change
High
Low
Volume
ZWZ9
515^0
-2^4
521^4
514^4
1903
ZWH10
533^0
-2^4
538^2
532^4
439
ZWK10
544^2
-3^2
549^6
544^2
20
ZWN10
555^4
-2^4
561^0
555^0
41
KEZ9
524^0
-1^6
528^6
523^2
253
KEH10
539^2
-1^6
543^6
539^0
48
MWEZ9
534^6
-0^4
540^0
533^4
142
MWEH10
551^2
0^0
554^0
551^2
32
Early Opening Calls: off 1-3 cents
Top News
-- 7,000 mt of feed grade Wheat was purchased on Wednesday by Japan's Ag Ministry under the SBS
system, acc. to official at the ministry
-- S Africa's crop estimating committee puts the 2009 Wheat crop at 2.01 mln mt up from the prior
estimate of 1.99 mln mt
http://www.linngroup.com
Page 2 of 2
312.896.2001
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be
reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for
informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates
may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
-- Columbia Grain & United Harvest were both sellers of Wheat to Taiwan flour mill group on
Wednesday, acc. to officials at flour mill group.
Total wheat purchased was 73,840 mt
-- Iranian newspaper reports in the first half of 09/10 MY the country imported 3.7 mln mt of Wheat
from various countries including the US, Australia & Argentina.
-- Russia's ag ministry said as of Oct 20th 98.8 mln mt of grain had been harvested.
Grain harvest was
also said to 91% complete.
-- No date yet announced for Russian gov't grain buy tenders, but they're accepting registrations for
sellers for the upcoming intervention tenders
-- CFTC commissioner suggests the agency should begin with high position limits with regard to spec
trading limits so as to not drive trading off US exchanges under the proposed new enforcement system
-- USDA puts participation by farmers in its ACRE program at 8%, or roughly 128,000 farmers out of
1.7 mln eligible
-- Pending Tender: Oct 22nd is bid deadline in 200,000 mt Wheat buy tender floated by Morocco's state
grainary.
Delivery is expected by December 15th, acc. to traders
-- Pending Tender: Japan's Ag Ministry announced their weekly Thursday tender they're seeking
133,000 mt of Wheat from US/Canadian and Aussie origin
-- Pending Tender: Oct 26th is bid deadline for 100,000 mt plus Wheat tender floated by Iraq's Grain
Board on Tuesday, acc. to their website.
-- Pending Tender: Japan's Ag Ministry also floated Oct 29th SBS tender for 52,200 mt of food grade
Wheat
-- Pending Tender: 60,000 mt of optional origin Wheat is sought by Bangladesh's gov't in a November
16th tender deadline
-- Pending Tender: A new 100,000 mt of Wheat tender for Dec 2nd was issued by Bangladesh state run
grainary, acc. to traders
-- Liffe Jan milling wheat futures were off -0.25 euro at 129.75 euros/mt.
-- Globex Wheat Vol. 59,464; Pit Vol. 6,945; Open Interest Change: - 1,142
-- Weather: 6-10 day Forecast: Below Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip.
-- Outside markets: Energy Complex -0.90 at $78.22; Gold & Silver: -6.4 at $1052.2 & -0.183 at
$17.375; US $ -0.080 at $75.650
Cash Markets
-- CIF SR Wheat up 5 to 15: Oct. -15 to -?? Nov. -5 to +10 Dec. Opt. to +15
--
John Christopher
Linn Group
312.896.2061